Part of: How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?
This Polymarket market asks whether the 5-year Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.90% on any date through December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes when that threshold is reached; otherwise, it resolves No after the final relevant data is available. The supplied market data reports one large Yes signal and $1,261 in tracked smart money, but does not include current odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,261.
Categories: Economy, Finance, Fed Rates, Treasuries
Notable Trades
Large YES bet in a quiet market
A $1,261 YES position exceeded ten times the market’s 24-hour volume and the indicated odds have since risen from 68% to 79%, though the wallet’s record does not establish a strong edge.
- The $1,261 YES bet was over 10 times the market’s $122 in 24-hour volume.
- The trader entered at 68¢, while current odds are 79%; the wallet is up $86,913 across 1,551 resolved bets.
$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Related Theses
5-year yield reaches 4.90%, not 5.25%
Covers 3 related markets
Oil hits record after September
Covers 2 related markets
Israel keeps airspace open
Covers 2 related markets
No US-Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
WTI stays above $90
Covers 2 related markets
Iran blockade ends by August
Covers 4 related markets
Ceasefire breaks, then resumes through September
Covers 5 related markets