Part of: National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $268,977.

Notable Trades

Three-wallet fade of favorite

Three wallets coordinated a $7.1K sell-off of Nakashima, including a highly profitable serial trader, though some selling appears to be position management.

Three wallets sold $7,124 of Nakashima while the favorite fell sharply from much higher levels, pointing to coordinated downside conviction.
One participant has won 70% of 88,626 resolved trades and earned nearly $500,000 lifetime across 1,262 events.
Some trades may be profit-taking from existing Nakashima positions, so the signal is meaningful but not uniformly fresh conviction.

$7,124 on Rafael Jodar

94% winner adds to Nakashima

A highly experienced serial cross-market bettor with a 94% win rate is adding $5,000 to an existing Brandon Nakashima position amid a major volume spike.

This bettor has won 94% of 84 resolved trades and is up $20,005 overall.
They are adding $5,000 to an existing Brandon Nakashima position after trading across 34 events.
The market saw a 20.1x volume spike, while Nakashima moved from the 90¢ entry to 94¢.

$5,000 on Brandon Nakashima | Wallet win rate: 89%

19-wallet funded Nakashima cluster

A 19-wallet, four-funder cluster committed $133,451 to Nakashima amid a 143x volume spike and 45-point price surge, with several participating wallets showing strong historical edge.

Nineteen wallets linked to four funders put $133,451 behind Brandon Nakashima, creating unusually concentrated one-sided flow.
The move coincided with a 143x volume spike and Nakashima rising from roughly 41% to 86% implied probability.
Several participants have strong records, including bettors winning 84% to 96% of resolved trades with meaningful returns above their average entry odds.

$133,451 on Brandon Nakashima

Sharp bettor scaling into Nakashima

A highly profitable serial trader with an 85% win rate is adding $6,800 to an existing Brandon Nakashima position at 34¢ in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades—187 of 221—with more than $518,000 in profit.
They are adding $6,800 to an existing Nakashima position at 34¢, showing continued conviction.
The trade is over 15 times the market’s recent 24-hour volume, despite a relatively thin trading window.

$3,200 on Brandon Nakashima | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial bettor scaling into Jodar

A serial cross-market bettor with 189 resolved trades and a 79% win rate added $85,000 to an existing Rafael Jodar position, creating a meaningful conviction signal despite only modest historical edge over entry prices.

This bettor has traded 102 markets across 100 events, winning 79% of 189 resolved bets and earning $573,850.
They added $85,000 to an existing Jodar position at roughly 68.5¢, bringing their total investment in the outcome to $124,374.
The trade represented more than the market's entire recent volume, signaling strong conviction in Jodar at the current price.

$85,000 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 79%

87% winner adds to Jodar

A highly profitable serial bettor with an 87% win rate is adding $3,401 to an existing Rafael Jodar position at 67 cents.

This bettor has won 87% of 92 resolved trades and is up $170,033 lifetime.
They are adding $3,401 to an existing Rafael Jodar position at 67¢, signaling continued conviction.
The wallet has traded across 34 markets and 32 events, making this more than an isolated bet.

$3,401 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 87%

Serial sharp scaling into Jodar

A proven high-volume bettor with a 79% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding to an existing Rafael Jodar position at 67%.

This bettor has won 79% of 335 resolved trades and is up $95,761.
Their results beat the average implied odds by 24 percentage points, indicating a meaningful historical edge.
The $1,980 purchase adds to an existing $2,955 Jodar position at 67%, signaling continued conviction.

$1,980 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettors scaling into Jodar

Three experienced, highly profitable bettors are adding $13,320 to Rafael Jodar amid a 116x volume spike, including a 97% winner and a 79% winner with meaningful edge over entry odds.

Three wallets added $13,320 to Rafael Jodar, including one bettor with a 97% win rate across 116 resolved bets.
Another bettor wins 79% of 335 bets at average odds of 60%, indicating a substantial historical edge.
The coordinated buying coincides with a 116x historical volume spike, while all three wallets are adding to existing Jodar positions.

$13,020 on Rafael Jodar

Sharp bettor scaling into Nakashima

A highly profitable serial trader with an 85% win rate is adding $6,800 to an existing Brandon Nakashima position at 34¢ in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades—187 of 221—with more than $518,000 in profit.
They are adding $6,800 to an existing Nakashima position at 34¢, showing continued conviction.
The trade is over 15 times the market’s recent 24-hour volume, despite a relatively thin trading window.

$6,800 on Brandon Nakashima | Wallet win rate: 82%

97% winner scaling into Jodar

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 97% win rate is adding $10,000 to an already-held Jodar position in an extremely quiet market.

This bettor has won 113 of 116 resolved trades and earned $101,790 in profit.
The $10,000 purchase is over 22 times the market’s 24-hour volume, showing unusually strong conviction in a thin market.
The trader is adding to an existing Jodar position rather than making a routine exit, while Jodar is priced around 68%.

$10,000 on Rafael Jodar | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

0xdbbb...05a8 — Outcome 99347306, $124,374 (79% win rate)
0x9b37...0eb2 — Outcome 99347306, $90,290
0x7523...4c4c — Outcome 99347306, $75,000 (49% win rate)
0x772f...8145 — Outcome 99347306, $20,917 (89% win rate)
0xe6a9...e35a — Outcome 99347306, $17,292 (67% win rate)
0xf3b0...23a1 — Outcome 99347306, $15,928 (97% win rate)
0x49fd...39c8 — Outcome 99347306, $14,280
0x2117...5c26 — Outcome 99347306, $11,767 (46% win rate)
0x3f98...0aa1 — Outcome 99347306, $11,445 (79% win rate)
0x698b...4426 — Outcome 99347306, $9,500 (54% win rate)

Related Theses

Argentina or France win

Covers 3 related markets

US Iran peace deal likely

Covers 2 related markets

Belgium advances in low-scoring match

Covers 3 related markets

Zverev will defeat Tommy Paul

Covers 1 related market

Bucsa beats Zhang in Strasbourg

Covers 1 related market

PSG wins 2026 Champions League

Covers 1 related market

Khachanov beats Gaston

Covers 1 related market

Safiullin-Fonseca goes long

Covers 1 related market

Yilmaz beats Matusevich in Istanbul

Covers 1 related market

Auger-Aliassime beats Altmaier

Covers 1 related market

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima

ResolvedNational Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima$268,977 tracked10 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Brandon Nakashima in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafael Jodar' if Rafael Jodar advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Rafael Jodar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Brandon Nakashima”

95¢

63¢

30¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction