Part of: Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
This prediction market asks whether OpenSea's token will have a fully diluted valuation above $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after its launch. It resolves to Yes only if the token is publicly transferable and actively tradable, with pricing taken from the most liquid source available. If OpenSea does not launch a token before the market deadline on January 1, 2027, the market resolves to No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,946.
Categories: Crypto, Pre-Market, fdv
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 62 resolved bets sold No here, which converts to a Yes buy around 40¢ and stands out despite the modest trade size.
- This wallet has a real track record: 66% wins across 62 resolved bets and about $170k in profit
- They trade related markets repeatedly, with 54 markets across 44 events and 4 positions in this same OpenSea token event
- Selling No at 60¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 40¢, showing a fresh view that the market is underpricing this outcome
$1,670 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
85% win-rate crypto bettor
A serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate opened a fresh bullish position on this crypto launch market by effectively buying Yes at 40¢.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 46 markets and has traded 36 related events
- Their sell of No at 60¢ is effectively a buy of Yes at 40¢, near the current ask
- The market is active but not crowded, and 40¢ suggests they see Opensea launching above this valuation more often than the market does
$1,276 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xd4f4...a781 — Yes, $64,354
- 0x088b...21cc — Yes, $27,296 (13% win rate)
- 0x014c...820c — No, $25,127 (39% win rate)
- 0x8a09...e317 — No, $18,835
- 0x53a2...1d62 — Yes, $17,129
- 0x6fbb...a41a — No, $11,348
- 0x2721...325b — No, $6,697
- 0x5bc4...f44f — No, $5,883
- 0xce03...5608 — No, $5,839
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $4,917 (75% win rate)
