Part of: Which company has best AI model end of June?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will own the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when it is checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution is based on the Rank section of the Leaderboard tab on lmarena.ai, using the text leaderboard with style control off. PolySpotter is tracking $6,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent YES-side whale and high-win-rate trader alerts.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,031.

Categories: Tech, Big Tech, GPT-5, Grok, OpenAI, AI

Notable Trades

Repeat new whale buying YES

A repeat new-wallet bettor put another $6k on Anthropic YES after $33.9k of flagged activity and early profits, though the track record is still limited.

  • This 22-day-old wallet has already made $33.9k in flagged bets and is up $6.5k on one resolved market.
  • They bought $6k of YES at 86¢ despite already-high odds, signaling strong conviction.
  • The market is up 7.3 points this week and resolves at the end of June, so this aligns with recent momentum.

$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

96% winner buying favorite

Surface due to an extremely experienced cross-market wallet with 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L buying Yes, despite the trade being modest in a liquid market.

  • This bettor has won 96% of 951 resolved trades and is up about $100k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 419 events with over $6.1M in tracked betting volume.
  • Entry at 83¢ shows they are backing Anthropic as a strong favorite, not chasing a long-shot payout.

$2,047 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

96% serial cross-market winner

A highly proven serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Anthropic Yes at 76¢.

  • This bettor has won 96% of 945 resolved bets and is up $84.6K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 417 events and $6.1M of volume, suggesting a repeatable research process.
  • Entry at 76¢ implies they still see upside despite Anthropic already being the favorite.

$1,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%

Sharp-led Yes cluster

Surface: a small three-wallet cluster is buying Anthropic Yes, including a profitable 91% bettor and a wallet with repeated large-bet flags.

  • A bettor who wins 91% of resolved trades joined this Yes bet and is up $2,486 lifetime.
  • Three wallets moved the same way within minutes, putting $4,664 behind Anthropic at about 71¢.
  • The trade is part of cross-market positioning in this event, suggesting a broader AI-leaderboard thesis.

$4,664 on Yes

91% winner fading favorite

Sharp wallet override: a 91% winner with positive P&L is buying No despite Anthropic being a 75% favorite, with related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor has won 10 of 11 resolved bets and is up $2,326 lifetime.
  • They are taking the contrarian side at 25¢ while the market prices Anthropic as a 75% favorite.
  • The wallet has $5,587 across related markets, suggesting a broader AI-leaderboard thesis.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $331,735
  2. 0x09c0...6f73 Yes, $65,675
  3. 0x7098...b948 No, $26,018
  4. 0xc74a...f01b Yes, $25,151
  5. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $21,389 (41% win rate)
  6. 0xb47a...6d60 No, $15,555 (82% win rate)
  7. 0xe907...cff6 Yes, $14,894 (47% win rate)
  8. 0xd49a...6f4c Yes, $14,779
  9. 0x97cf...c6eb Yes, $13,815 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x0042...321e No, $10,886 (47% win rate)

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Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

26dWhich company has best AI model end of June?$15,031 tracked5 signalsTechBig TechGPT-5GrokOpenAIAI
Yes
85¢
No
15¢

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “Yes
88¢
81¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

2h ago

$6,000 on Yes at 86¢

86¢85¢1¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

1d ago

$2,047 on Yes at 83¢

83¢85¢2¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

9d ago

$1,055 on Yes at 76¢

76¢85¢9¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

10d ago

$4,664 on Yes at 71¢

71¢85¢14¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

12d ago

$1,266 on No at 25¢

25¢15¢10¢

Related Theses