Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.
Categories: Trump, putin, Ukraine Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Trump-Zelenskyy, Ukraine
Notable Trades
New linked wallet buying YES
A very new but already profitable linked wallet put $2k on the low-probability Yes side of a near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market.
- This 4-day-old wallet is already up $1.9k and just put $2k on a 6¢ longshot.
- The wallet is linked to another funded account flagged in prior runs, suggesting repeat positioning.
- Entry at 6¢ implies about a 16x payout if a ceasefire is announced by May 31.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 29%
Top Holders
- 0x5d0f...f0ad — Yes, $313,025 (100% win rate)
- 0xe792...ffe4 — No, $130,840
- 0x152f...a549 — Yes, $121,318
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $110,545 (86% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $98,754 (70% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $67,791 (100% win rate)
- 0xf2fc...7a15 — No, $56,419
- 0x73e2...13c3 — Yes, $55,935
- 0x758c...074a — Yes, $45,116
- 0x8b88...5f5e — No, $44,745
