Part of: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,301.

Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

Serial trader riding momentum

High-score alert: a very active cross-market trader bought magic before a sharp pre-match move, with volume and price action confirming momentum despite the wallet's negative lifetime P&L.

  • A high-volume bettor with 196 resolved bets bought magic at 77¢ before it moved to 86¢.
  • The trade came during a 29.6x pre-match volume spike as magic’s price jumped about 28 points.
  • This wallet has traded across 142 events with $1.47M total volume and wins 70% of resolved bets.

$4,957 on magic | Wallet win rate: 71%

Prolific sharp fading favorite

A very experienced cross-market esports bettor with a 74% win rate and $49.5k profit is fading magic after a large pre-event volume spike and sharp price move.

  • This bettor has won 74% of 1,014 resolved bets and is up $49.5k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $871k bet across 288 markets in 146 events.
  • Selling magic at 90¢ converts to buying Heroic at 10¢, while Heroic is now trading around 14¢.

$1,703 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable serial trader

Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large sample is buying Heroic after a sharp short-term price drop, despite the trade being modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor is up $585K lifetime across 583 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 191 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market sports/esports strategy.
  • Heroic dropped 11 points in about 3 minutes, and this wallet bought at 49¢ into the move.

$1,995 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable esports cluster

Three experienced esports bettors, including two profitable serial cross-market traders, bought Heroic together around 47–49¢ despite recent downward price pressure.

  • Three wallets bought Heroic the same way, putting $5.2K behind the position around 47–49¢.
  • Two of the bettors are profitable long-term, including one up $2.26M and another up $585K.
  • The strongest wallet has traded across 597 events with a 60% win record and $3.47M in total volume.

$5,196 on Heroic

Profitable CS bettor buying dip

Despite a weak standalone price-impact signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large proven sample and is up about $585k lifetime.

  • This bettor is up $585k across 583 resolved bets, a strong long-term track record.
  • They bought $6.8k of Heroic at 62¢ after a quick 11-point price drop.
  • The market is liquid, so the edge here is mainly the bettor’s proven profitability rather than order-book noise.

$6,788 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable bettor on steam move

A high-volume esports market saw a sharp pre-event volume spike and rapid move against Heroic, with a profitable high-volume wallet buying magic.

  • This bettor is up $131.9K lifetime across 759 resolved trades, though their win rate is only 51%.
  • Market volume spiked 47.7x above normal, and Heroic dropped 11 points in about 3 minutes.
  • The trade buys magic at 37¢ while the market now shows 36¢, suggesting they are following the same pre-match steam.

$4,383 on magic | Wallet win rate: 51%

80% serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought magic at 61¢.

  • This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.7K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 189 events with over $1.3M total deployed.
  • Entry at 61¢ suggests a moderate-confidence position on magic despite a liquid market.

$1,703 on magic | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable serial sports bettor

Serial cross-market sports bettor with massive profitable history bought Heroic despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor has an enormous track record: 27,164 resolved trades and $2.24M lifetime profit.
  • They have traded across 1,407 events, suggesting a systematic sports edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying Heroic at 59¢ is a meaningful $3.6K position in a liquid market.

$3,575 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 55%

93% winner buying Heroic

Sharp esports bettor with a 93% historical win rate and $244k profit is buying $5k of Heroic at 61¢.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $244k lifetime.
  • They have traded 133 related events with a 93% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
  • A $5k buy at 61¢ implies they see Heroic as meaningfully underpriced.

$5,000 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 93%

93% sharp backs underdog

Elite esports bettor with a 93% win rate and $2.57M profit is taking a $5k position on magic at 40¢, larger than recent market activity.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $2.57M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with 399 events and over $5.3M wagered.
  • The $5k buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction on magic at 40¢.

$5,000 on magic | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x30c7...ac3b Outcome 58016683, $20,019 (61% win rate)
  2. 0x6902...b4ca Outcome 58016683, $8,197 (93% win rate)
  3. 0xe3d4...2bac Outcome 58016683, $6,949 (60% win rate)
  4. 0xc466...e8b5 Outcome 58016683, $5,000
  5. 0xdcaf...e271 Outcome 58016683, $5,000
  6. 0xfd9d...f409 Outcome 58016683, $4,590
  7. 0x507e...beae Outcome 58016683, $4,521 (50% win rate)
  8. 0x12d9...01bb Outcome 58016683, $3,854 (30% win rate)
  9. 0x72aa...90e0 Outcome 58016683, $2,977 (51% win rate)
  10. 0xbf6d...cf10 Outcome 58016683, $2,757 (45% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Monte wins Map 1

Covers 1 related market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

ResolvedCounter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage$40,301 tracked10 signalsEsportscounter strike 2GamesSports

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Heroic and magic in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 12 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against magic. This market will resolve to "magic" if magic win the match against Heroic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price History — “magic
102¢
70¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

17h ago

$4,957 on magic at 77¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

17h ago

$1,703 on Heroic at 10¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

17h ago

$1,995 on Heroic at 49¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

17h ago

$5,196 on Heroic at 48¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

18h ago

$6,788 on Heroic at 62¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

18h ago

$4,383 on magic at 37¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

19h ago

$1,703 on magic at 61¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

20h ago

$3,575 on Heroic at 59¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

1d ago

$5,000 on Heroic at 61¢

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

1d ago

$5,000 on magic at 40¢

Related Theses