Part of: Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $40,301.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Serial trader riding momentum
High-score alert: a very active cross-market trader bought magic before a sharp pre-match move, with volume and price action confirming momentum despite the wallet's negative lifetime P&L.
- A high-volume bettor with 196 resolved bets bought magic at 77¢ before it moved to 86¢.
- The trade came during a 29.6x pre-match volume spike as magic’s price jumped about 28 points.
- This wallet has traded across 142 events with $1.47M total volume and wins 70% of resolved bets.
$4,957 on magic | Wallet win rate: 72%
Prolific sharp fading favorite
A very experienced cross-market esports bettor with a 74% win rate and $49.5k profit is fading magic after a large pre-event volume spike and sharp price move.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,014 resolved bets and is up $49.5k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $871k bet across 288 markets in 146 events.
- Selling magic at 90¢ converts to buying Heroic at 10¢, while Heroic is now trading around 14¢.
$1,703 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large sample is buying Heroic after a sharp short-term price drop, despite the trade being modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor is up $585K lifetime across 583 resolved markets.
- They have traded 191 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market sports/esports strategy.
- Heroic dropped 11 points in about 3 minutes, and this wallet bought at 49¢ into the move.
$1,995 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable esports cluster
Three experienced esports bettors, including two profitable serial cross-market traders, bought Heroic together around 47–49¢ despite recent downward price pressure.
- Three wallets bought Heroic the same way, putting $5.2K behind the position around 47–49¢.
- Two of the bettors are profitable long-term, including one up $2.26M and another up $585K.
- The strongest wallet has traded across 597 events with a 60% win record and $3.47M in total volume.
$5,196 on Heroic
Profitable CS bettor buying dip
Despite a weak standalone price-impact signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a large proven sample and is up about $585k lifetime.
- This bettor is up $585k across 583 resolved bets, a strong long-term track record.
- They bought $6.8k of Heroic at 62¢ after a quick 11-point price drop.
- The market is liquid, so the edge here is mainly the bettor’s proven profitability rather than order-book noise.
$6,788 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable bettor on steam move
A high-volume esports market saw a sharp pre-event volume spike and rapid move against Heroic, with a profitable high-volume wallet buying magic.
- This bettor is up $131.9K lifetime across 759 resolved trades, though their win rate is only 51%.
- Market volume spiked 47.7x above normal, and Heroic dropped 11 points in about 3 minutes.
- The trade buys magic at 37¢ while the market now shows 36¢, suggesting they are following the same pre-match steam.
$4,383 on magic | Wallet win rate: 52%
80% serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with an 80% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought magic at 61¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $13.7K lifetime.
- They have traded across 189 events with over $1.3M total deployed.
- Entry at 61¢ suggests a moderate-confidence position on magic despite a liquid market.
$1,703 on magic | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Serial cross-market sports bettor with massive profitable history bought Heroic despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor has an enormous track record: 27,164 resolved trades and $2.24M lifetime profit.
- They have traded across 1,407 events, suggesting a systematic sports edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying Heroic at 59¢ is a meaningful $3.6K position in a liquid market.
$3,575 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 55%
93% winner buying Heroic
Sharp esports bettor with a 93% historical win rate and $244k profit is buying $5k of Heroic at 61¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $244k lifetime.
- They have traded 133 related events with a 93% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- A $5k buy at 61¢ implies they see Heroic as meaningfully underpriced.
$5,000 on Heroic | Wallet win rate: 93%
93% sharp backs underdog
Elite esports bettor with a 93% win rate and $2.57M profit is taking a $5k position on magic at 40¢, larger than recent market activity.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $2.57M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 399 events and over $5.3M wagered.
- The $5k buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction on magic at 40¢.
$5,000 on magic | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0x30c7...ac3b — Outcome 58016683, $20,019 (62% win rate)
- 0x6902...b4ca — Outcome 58016683, $8,197 (93% win rate)
- 0xe3d4...2bac — Outcome 58016683, $6,949 (60% win rate)
- 0xc466...e8b5 — Outcome 58016683, $5,000
- 0xdcaf...e271 — Outcome 58016683, $5,000
- 0xfd9d...f409 — Outcome 58016683, $4,590
- 0x72aa...90e0 — Outcome 58016683, $2,977 (51% win rate)
- 0xbf6d...cf10 — Outcome 58016683, $2,757 (45% win rate)
- 0xdd88...dadb — Outcome 58016683, $2,747 (59% win rate)
- 0xb8cb...8f46 — Outcome 33172644, $2,500 (56% win rate)
Related Theses
Monte wins Map 1
Covers 1 related market
