Part of: Paraguay vs. France

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

33 smart money signals detected, totaling $356,647.

Categories: Sports, Soccer, FIFA World Cup, Games

Notable Trades

93% winner fades favorite

A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate is buying France No at 17¢ despite a very liquid market.

This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $636K lifetime.
They are taking the underdog side at 17¢, implying a potential ~5.9x payout if France fails to win.
The wallet has been flagged repeatedly and has 72 resolved positions, making the track record meaningful.

$2,142 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Sharp soccer bettor buying favorite

Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought France Yes at 84%, making the wallet track record the main signal despite the liquid market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1,700 lifetime.
Their average winning entry was 53%, suggesting they have beaten market expectations before.
Buying at 84¢ implies confidence that France is still underpriced as a strong favorite.

$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

92% win-rate sports bettor

Sharp sports bettor with a 92% record and positive lifetime P&L bought $7.6k of France Yes at 84¢.

This bettor has won 92% of resolved positions, going 22-for-24 so far.
They are up $5,066 lifetime on $105,682 invested, showing a real track record rather than just size.
They bought $7.6k of France Yes at 84¢ in a highly liquid market.

$7,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%

Sharp soccer bettor buying favorite

Sharp sports bettor with a 78% record and strong edge is buying France Yes at 84¢ despite a very liquid market.

This bettor has won 25 of 32 resolved bets and is up $858 on $1,976 invested.
Their past wins came at much lower average prices, suggesting real edge rather than just backing heavy favorites.
They are putting $2.6K on France at 84¢ in a highly liquid market.

$2,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

97% winner buying favorite

Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 97% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, making the 84¢ France buy worth surfacing despite the modest standalone signal.

This bettor has won 32 of 33 resolved bets and is up $27.8k lifetime.
They have invested $1.33M historically, suggesting this is a proven high-volume sports bettor.
Entry at 84¢ is a confident bet on the favorite in a very liquid market.

$5,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%

95% winner buying favorite

Sharp wallet with a 95% win rate and strong positive P&L bought $6k of France Yes despite a liquid market.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $26.2k lifetime.
They bought $6k of France at 84¢, showing confidence even at favorite odds.
Their past wins came at 66¢ on average, so this is a proven wallet rather than just a large bet.

$6,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

87% win-rate bettor

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has an 87% resolved win rate with positive P&L and is buying France despite a very liquid market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is profitable across 15 positions.
Their past wins came around 50¢ odds on average, suggesting they are not just buying heavy favorites.
They bought France at 84¢ in a highly liquid market, so this is a track-record-driven copy signal.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp 87% sports bettor

Sharp sports bettor with an 87% record and positive lifetime P&L bought France Yes despite only a modest signal score.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $11.3K lifetime.
They bought France at 84¢, showing confidence even in a very liquid market.
Their past wins came at an average 66¢ entry, suggesting they have beaten market prices consistently.

$1,900 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 79% resolved win rate and +$44.8k lifetime P&L bought France Yes at 84¢.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44.8k lifetime.
They have traded across 44 events with the same 79% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
Buying France at 84¢ means they are backing a heavy favorite despite a very liquid market.

$4,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Perfect-record sports bettor

Sharp wallet override: this bettor has a perfect 33/33 resolved record with positive lifetime P&L and is buying France Yes at 84¢.

This bettor has won 33 of 33 resolved trades and is up $3,433 lifetime.
Their past wins averaged 57¢ entries, suggesting they have beaten market prices by a wide margin.
They are backing France at 84¢ in a very liquid market, so the signal is the bettor’s track record rather than market impact.

$1,821 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

0x9ee8...89de — Outcome 21768823, $937,114 (76% win rate)
0xc41d...74fd — Outcome 21768823, $666,997 (97% win rate)
0x7225...659a — Outcome 21768823, $486,173 (93% win rate)
0x2759...2b38 — Outcome 21768823, $367,686 (64% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 21768823, $260,738
0xec44...c92b — Outcome 21768823, $104,957 (78% win rate)
0x224a...a3d5 — Outcome 21768823, $99,793 (65% win rate)
0x9703...69c2 — Outcome 21768823, $97,329
0x0c78...77f1 — Outcome 21768823, $86,944 (79% win rate)
0x20d6...3856 — Outcome 21768823, $59,999 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Spain loses; France or Argentina triumph

Covers 3 related markets

A favorite wins 2026 World Cup

Covers 4 related markets

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

ResolvedParaguay vs. France$356,647 tracked33 signalsSportsSoccerFIFA World CupGames

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 4, 2026 If France wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.