Part of: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether the Houthis will take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if a specified air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the Houthis directly impacts Saudi Arabia; PolySpotter currently tracks $1,169 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, with a recent alert showing a serial winner adding “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,169.

Categories: Iran, Yemen, houthi, Houthis, Geopolitics, Middle East, saudi arabia

Notable Trades

Serial winner adding No

Serial cross-market trader with a strong resolved record is adding to an existing No position on a very thin geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has won 94% of resolved bets and is up $18.4K lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now with about $3.1K invested on this market.
  • This $1.17K buy was over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin order book.

$1,169 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x85a8...9281 No, $1,932 (94% win rate)
  2. 0x993c...6787 Yes, $1,000 (40% win rate)
  3. 0x1086...27d2 Yes, $700
  4. 0x5bd0...c562 Yes, $200
  5. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $168 (74% win rate)
  6. 0xeca0...e8f8 No, $150 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xb46c...c34d Yes, $140
  8. 0xa6b7...d5f3 No, $122 (56% win rate)
  9. 0x8199...bb6d Yes, $100
  10. 0xd7f1...73cd Yes, $100

Related Theses

Houthis will hit shipping

Covers 1 related market

Houthis avoid Saudi attacks

Covers 1 related market

No US-Iran nuclear deal

Covers 2 related markets

Díaz-Canel stays in power

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

European warships avoid Hormuz

Covers 2 related markets

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

12dHouthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?$1,169 tracked1 signalIranYemenhouthiHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle Eastsaudi arabia
Yes
28¢
No
72¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis and credible reporting.

Price History — “No
75¢
57¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?

1d ago

$1,169 on No at 67¢

67¢72¢5¢

Related Theses