What is the Elon Musk 140-159 tweets prediction market?

It is a prediction market on whether Elon Musk will make between 140 and 159 counted X posts during the specified July 14-21, 2026 time window.

Which Elon Musk posts count in this market?

Main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count. Replies do not generally count, although replies appearing on the main feed may be counted by the market tracker.

When does the Elon Musk tweet market resolve?

The market covers July 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through July 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and resolves on July 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

What smart money activity is being reported?

The market currently shows a 16-wallet funded No cluster and proven sharp scaling into Yes, with $1,800 in tracked smart money and one smart money signal.

Do deleted Elon Musk posts count?

According to the market description, deleted posts count if they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker.

Part of: Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Elon Musk will publish 140 to 159 counted posts on X between July 14 at 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count, while replies generally do not; the market resolves on July 21, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Smart money activity includes a 16-wallet funded No cluster and proven sharp scaling into Yes.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,143.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets

Notable Trades

16-wallet funded No cluster

A 16-wallet funded cluster is backing No, with a sharp volume surge and price move, although this wallet is adding to an existing position rather than making a fresh bet.

This wallet is part of a 16-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong coordinated-conviction signal.
No rose 20.69% amid a 174x historical volume spike, suggesting substantial recent positioning.
The bettor is adding to an existing No position at 90¢; its 64% win rate and $42,000 profit provide supportive but not elite track-record evidence.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Proven sharp scaling into Yes

A proven bettor with a 79% win rate and $44,924 profit is adding to an existing Yes position at 33%, indicating meaningful conviction despite the modest alert score.

This bettor has won 79% of 28 resolved positions and is up $44,924.
They are adding $1,343 to an existing $4,453 Yes position at 33%, rather than merely opening a small trade.
The 33¢ entry implies they view the 140–159 tweet range as substantially more likely than the market’s 32% estimate.

$1,343 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%