Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This Polymarket market asks whether Jordan will advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It resolves “Yes” if Jordan reaches the Round of 32, and “No” if they are mathematically eliminated; resolution is expected by June 28, 2026, with $3,000 in smart money tracked and recent sharp activity leaning No.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,916.
Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Unbeaten bettor backs No
Surface despite the weak low-activity signal because the wallet is 19-0 on resolved trades with positive lifetime P&L and is buying No with a meaningful $3k stake.
- This bettor has won 19 of 19 resolved trades and is up about $2.9k lifetime.
- They put $3,000 on No at 89¢, backing Jordan to miss the knockout stage.
- The market is still far from resolution, so this looks like a long-horizon conviction bet rather than a last-minute odds grab.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
New repeat whale on NO
A brand-new wallet with repeated large-bet activity is taking a sizable No position in a quiet World Cup futures market.
- This wallet is under 2 days old but has already made 12 large flagged bets totaling $29.7k.
- This $3.16k No buy is bigger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet book.
- Entry at 79¢ implies they are backing Jordan to miss the knockout stage despite only modest recent price movement.
$3,160 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large buy on a relatively quiet World Cup market, adding conviction to Jordan Yes at 21¢.
- This bettor has won 67% of 160 resolved trades and is up $132k lifetime.
- They have traded across 28 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- This $3.4k buy was nearly a full day’s volume in the market, showing meaningful conviction at 21¢.
$3,377 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
New profitable repeat bettor
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is adding another World Cup position, buying Jordan to advance at 20¢.
- This new wallet is only 6 days old but has already placed $41k in flagged bets.
- Early results are strong: 2 wins, 0 losses, and about $9.3k in profit so far.
- Buying Yes at 20¢ suggests they see Jordan’s knockout-stage chances as underpriced.
$1,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp bettor fades Jordan
Sharp 86% winner made a $3.1k No bet in a quiet market while also positioning across three related markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 63 bets and is profitable lifetime.
- The $3.1k No buy was nearly 10x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They are also active across 3 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader qualification thesis.
$3,079 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x5cae...a00a — Outcome 60066750, $20,983 (67% win rate)
- 0xc096...9e8d — Outcome 60066750, $1,219
- 0x806e...2e52 — Outcome 60066750, $1,184 (92% win rate)
- 0x810d...0d24 — Outcome 60066750, $1,007 (50% win rate)
- 0x7609...6c4e — Outcome 60066750, $1,000 (92% win rate)
- 0x235e...5673 — Outcome 60066750, $975 (41% win rate)
- 0x3342...309a — Outcome 60066750, $898
- 0x78c1...473e — Outcome 60066750, $730
- 0x5c57...5b16 — Outcome 60066750, $622
- 0x373a...f4c1 — Outcome 60066750, $474 (56% win rate)
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