Part of: Kansas Senate Election Winner

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election, including any runoff; it resolves on November 4, 2026. Current odds are not included in the supplied market data, while PolySpotter tracks $1,253 in smart money and one signal: a bettor with a reported 75% win rate adding to Yes.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,453.

Categories: Kansas Midterm, Senate Elections, Midterms, Elections, US Election, Politics, Key Senate Races

Notable Trades

91% winner adding to Yes

A proven bettor with 91% wins and substantial positive returns is adding to a Yes position at 38¢, despite a recent price decline.

  • This bettor has won 29 of 32 resolved positions and earned $32,516 profit.
  • They are adding $1,500 to an existing Yes position at 38¢, while the market has fallen 11% in a day.
  • Their historical average entry odds are about 40%, making this 38¢ entry consistent with their past bets.

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Serial cross-market trader adds to No

A historically profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position amid a reported 36x volume spike, though the wallet’s win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning entry price.

  • This wallet has resolved 1,827 bets and is up about $51,000 overall.
  • The trader added $1,413 to an existing No position as the market showed a reported 36x volume spike.
  • No was bought at 58¢; the wallet already held a sizable position averaging 48¢.

$1,413 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable high-volume bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 9,625 resolved positions added $1,251 to Yes, though this specific market’s timing and cross-market signals are not especially strong.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 9,625 resolved positions and is up $1.55M.
  • They bought Yes at 61¢, adding $1,251 to the Kansas Republican outcome.

$1,663 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable serial trader adding Yes

A profitable, highly active trader with 493 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position after the market fell, though their 72% win rate is roughly in line with their average winning price.

  • This trader is up $105,005 across 493 resolved bets and has won 72% of them.
  • They added $1,382 to an existing Yes position at 47¢ after the market fell 14.5% over the week.
  • The market is liquid, so this is a deliberate position increase rather than a bet moving a thin order book.

$1,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial trader adding to Yes

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is adding to an existing Kansas Republican position at 47¢ after a notable weekly price decline.

  • This bettor has won 72% of 493 resolved trades and is up about $105,000 lifetime.
  • They added $2,765 to an existing Yes position at 47¢, while the market is down 15% over the past week.

$2,765 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial trader adding Yes

A profitable, highly active trader with 493 resolved bets is adding to an existing Yes position after the market fell, though their 72% win rate is roughly in line with their average winning price.

  • This trader is up $105,005 across 493 resolved bets and has won 72% of them.
  • They added $1,382 to an existing Yes position at 47¢ after the market fell 14.5% over the week.
  • The market is liquid, so this is a deliberate position increase rather than a bet moving a thin order book.

$1,382 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are coordinated on No, with a serial cross-market trader among them and recent price movement also favoring No.

  • Seven linked wallets are aligned on No, with about $1,843 in combined bets.
  • The market has moved toward No, with Yes down 15.5% over the past week.
  • The active wallet has a 66% win rate across 329 resolved bets, though its average winning entry price is high at 81¢.

$1,843 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable high-volume bettor

A highly profitable bettor with 9,625 resolved positions added $1,251 to Yes, though this specific market’s timing and cross-market signals are not especially strong.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 9,625 resolved positions and is up $1.55M.
  • They bought Yes at 61¢, adding $1,251 to the Kansas Republican outcome.

$1,251 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Proven 75% bettor adding to Yes

A highly experienced bettor with 2,027 resolved trades and positive lifetime P&L is adding to an existing Yes position, though the new trade is modest relative to their prior stake.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 2,027 resolved trades and is up $276,835 lifetime.
  • They added $1,253 to Yes, alongside an existing $9,890 position in the same direction.
  • The entry was 62¢; the market has a tight 1¢ spread and over $200,000 in liquidity.

$1,253 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

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Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Kansas Senate Election Winner$14,453 tracked9 signalsKansas MidtermSenate ElectionsMidtermsElectionsUS ElectionPoliticsKey Senate Races
Yes
37¢
No
64¢

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Price History — “No”
66¢
52¢
39¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 16:13 UTC

$1,500 on Yes at 38¢

38¢→37¢↓1¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-02 01:28 UTC

$1,413 on No at 58¢

58¢→64¢↑6¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-11-01 02:17 UTC

$1,663 on Yes at 61¢

61¢→37¢↓24¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 21:15 UTC

$1,382 on Yes at 47¢

47¢→37¢↓10¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 21:09 UTC

$2,765 on Yes at 47¢

47¢→37¢↓10¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 21:04 UTC

$1,382 on Yes at 47¢

47¢→37¢↓10¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-30 17:51 UTC

$1,843 on No at 54¢

54¢→64¢↑10¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-28 18:13 UTC

$1,251 on Yes at 61¢

61¢→37¢↓24¢

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

2026-10-21 20:14 UTC

$1,253 on Yes at 62¢

62¢→37¢↓25¢

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