Part of: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
This Polymarket market predicts the winner of the Counter-Strike BO3 match between FURIA and Spirit in the PGL Astana Group Stage. PolySpotter tracks the live market odds plus $2,200 in smart money activity, including recent sharp signals on both FURIA and Spirit. The market is set to resolve on May 11, 2026, based on the official match winner, with a 50-50 resolution if the match is canceled, tied, or delayed beyond the rules window.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between FURIA and Spirit in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $151,661.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable new whale cluster
Very new but already highly profitable wallet is buying Spirit alongside broad one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This 1-day-old bettor is already up $56K and has won all 6 resolved bets so far.
- 11 wallets are all buying Spirit, totaling $28K on the same side.
- Volume is running 107x above normal before the match, suggesting strong coordinated interest.
$5,000 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp bettor joins Spirit flow
Sharp profitable esports bettor bought Spirit alongside 11-wallet same-direction flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved bets and is up $183K lifetime.
- 11 wallets are all buying Spirit, totaling $28K in same-direction flow.
- Market volume is surging 107x above baseline before the match.
$2,062 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable serial bettor joins Spirit flow
High-conviction Spirit buy from a highly profitable serial esports bettor, backed by 11-wallet same-side flow and a 107x pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has a long track record: 63% wins across 564 resolved markets and +$487k lifetime profit.
- 11 wallets are all buying Spirit, totaling $28k on the same side before the match.
- Volume is 107x above the market’s normal pace, suggesting unusual pre-match positioning.
$5,500 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought FURIA as the price moved sharply upward, making this a modest but followable momentum/track-record signal.
- This bettor has won 62% of 1,017 resolved bets and is up about $90.8k lifetime.
- They have traded across 195 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market sports/esports strategy.
- FURIA moved up 12 percentage points in about 3 minutes around this buy.
$2,200 on FURIA | Wallet win rate: 62%
Undefeated sharp backing underdog
Surface because the bettor has a perfect 13-0 resolved record with strong lifetime profit, and this trade is part of linked-wallet flow backing FURIA.
- This bettor is 13-0 on resolved trades and is up $87K lifetime.
- Two linked wallets have put $7K total behind the same side.
- Entry at 43¢ backs the underdog and implies a potential 2.3x payout.
$3,000 on FURIA | Wallet win rate: 100%
Serial cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market bettor with a modest positive long-term record placed a $7.1k Spirit bet, though the edge signal is not especially strong.
- This bettor has 271 resolved bets, wins 63%, and is up $3.6k lifetime.
- They have traded across 32 events, suggesting a repeat sports/esports betting process.
- The $7.1k Spirit buy is now slightly cheaper than their 73¢ entry.
$7,057 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial bettor
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Spirit, with a strong long-term record despite the price moving slightly against the entry.
- This bettor wins 63% of resolved trades and is up $487K lifetime.
- They have traded across 179 events with nearly $1M in cross-market volume.
- Their 75¢ Spirit entry is above the current 71¢ market price, so the position can be followed cheaper if odds hold.
$5,750 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable serial trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor bought FURIA amid a major pre-event volume spike, though the price has since moved against the entry.
- This bettor has a long track record: 60% wins across 419 resolved bets and $451k lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.8M wagered across 236 events.
- FURIA was bought at 38¢, and the market has since fallen to 28¢, making the same thesis cheaper now.
$1,610 on FURIA | Wallet win rate: 60%
93% winner on Spirit
Elite 93% winning bettor bought Spirit before a large one-sided move, and the position is already up sharply from 58¢ to 72¢.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $240K lifetime.
- They bought Spirit at 58¢ before the market moved to 72¢, showing strong early timing.
- Six wallets have also piled into the same side with $56K total, confirming one-sided momentum.
$7,500 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable trader with Spirit cluster
Profitable serial cross-market bettor joined a 6-wallet, $56.5k one-sided move on Spirit amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor is up $128k lifetime and has traded across 25 similar events.
- Six wallets all bought Spirit, totaling $56.5k in the same direction.
- They entered at 63¢ and Spirit has already moved to 72¢, showing the market followed the trade.
$2,154 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ea...d96a — FURIA, $118,175 (57% win rate)
- 0xc350...3669 — Spirit, $63,953 (63% win rate)
- 0xfc0c...cfc9 — Spirit, $50,794 (58% win rate)
- 0x88d1...18da — FURIA, $50,000 (69% win rate)
- 0x67bb...b6ef — FURIA, $48,262 (62% win rate)
- 0xa69d...509b — FURIA, $38,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x52e0...4746 — FURIA, $31,813 (100% win rate)
- 0x1341...0853 — FURIA, $30,000 (86% win rate)
- 0x8fbb...9a17 — Spirit, $25,178 (73% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — Spirit, $24,000 (63% win rate)
