Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will reach $90,000 before the end of December 31, 2026 ET. It resolves “Yes” if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle has a final high price at or above $90,000; otherwise it resolves “No” after the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $2,800 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent bearish BTC target and profitable crypto trader alerts.
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
27 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,680.
Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto
Notable Trades
Profitable BTC ladder bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is rebuilding a Yes position as part of a $198k five-market Bitcoin thesis, despite this individual trade being modest in a liquid market.
- This wallet is up about $954k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
- They have $198k spread across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
- This is a fresh re-entry into Yes at 28¢ after previously closing a much higher-priced position.
$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable BTC whale re-entering YES
A highly profitable whale is effectively buying Yes at 27¢ while carrying a $201k cross-market Bitcoin thesis, making this more notable than a simple low-liquidity trade.
- This wallet is up about $954k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
- They have a $201k thesis across 5 related Bitcoin markets, not just this one bet.
- Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢ after the market fell 29% this week.
$6,301 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable whale bearish across BTC
Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a bearish Bitcoin thesis across five related markets, with $197k of cross-market exposure despite only a modest trade size here.
- This high-volume bettor is up $953k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
- They have placed about $197k across 5 related Bitcoin markets, all pointing to a broader bearish view.
- This is a fresh flip to No after closing a prior Yes position, with the market down sharply over the past week.
$1,731 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable BTC bear thesis
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is taking a bearish BTC level view across five related markets, with nearly $197k in cross-market positioning and recent price momentum supporting the trade.
- This bettor is up about $850k lifetime across more than $37M traded.
- They have positioned nearly $197k across 5 related Bitcoin target markets.
- Buying No at 73¢ follows a sharp weekly move against Yes, with this market down 24 points over the past week.
$1,512 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Profitable BTC thesis trader
A profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market bearish Bitcoin-threshold thesis, including a fresh No buy here after previously closing a Yes position.
- This wallet is up about $850K lifetime and has traded over $37M on Polymarket.
- They have placed about $149K across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
- They flipped from a prior Yes position into No here, buying at 72¢ as Bitcoin odds weakened sharply this week.
$2,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
87% win-rate sharp
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved win rate and $179k lifetime profit bought Yes on BTC reaching $90k despite recent market weakness.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $179k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 32¢ after the market fell 24.5 points over the past week.
- Entry at 32¢ implies they see this as a roughly 3x payout opportunity.
$1,203 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
80% winner bearish BTC
Proven profitable wallet with an 80% record is building a bearish cross-market Bitcoin thesis, buying No on BTC reaching $90k by end-2026.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17k lifetime.
- They have put $5.7k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, all pointing to the same thesis.
- Buying No at 72¢ follows a sharp market move, with this contract down 20% over the past week.
$1,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable BTC cross-market trader
A high-volume profitable wallet is expressing a broader bearish BTC-threshold thesis across five related markets, with $188k positioned in the event despite this individual add being modest.
- This wallet is up about $827k lifetime across $37.6M traded.
- They have built a $188k position across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This buy follows a sharp weekly move toward No, with Yes odds down about 25 points.
$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%
Proven BTC bettor buys No
Sharp profitable wallet with 77% win rate and $57k lifetime profit is buying No across related Bitcoin milestone markets despite only a modest alert score.
- This bettor has won 77% of 508 resolved trades and is up $57,393 lifetime.
- They are buying No after Bitcoin odds fell 15.5 points this week, aligning with recent market momentum.
- The wallet previously closed a smaller No position and is now re-entering at larger size.
$1,657 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
85% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: the bettor has an 85% record over 59 resolved trades with positive lifetime P&L, making this BTC No buy worth surfacing despite the modest trade size.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $7,520 lifetime.
- They bought No at 53¢ as Bitcoin odds have already moved lower over the past week.
- Entry at 53¢ implies they see continued downside to the chance BTC hits $90,000 by end-2026.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Top Holders
- 0x3eba...849a — Yes, $60,619 (93% win rate)
- 0x6131...fd16 — No, $31,205 (50% win rate)
- 0xd2e8...eeea — No, $30,003 (74% win rate)
- 0x00ff...f7ad — No, $24,000 (58% win rate)
- 0xbace...3429 — No, $17,649 (80% win rate)
- 0xfa03...8916 — No, $16,998 (43% win rate)
- 0xacca...08b1 — Yes, $16,000
- 0xbef5...1c5a — No, $15,000
- 0x32b6...2f9f — No, $14,364
- 0x71ed...d338 — Yes, $13,818 (83% win rate)
Related Theses
MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May
Covers 5 related markets
