Part of: Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik
This prediction market covers the Internazionali BNL d'Italia match between Learner Tien and Alexander Bublik, scheduled for May 10, 2026, with resolution expected by May 17, 2026. The market resolves to the player who advances, while cancellation, a tie, or a delay beyond seven days without a winner may affect resolution under the market rules. PolySpotter is tracking $81,231 in smart money across 10 signals, including recent whale activity flipping to Tien and multiple Bublik buying surges.
18 smart money signals detected, totaling $119,983.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor caught surge
Proven profitable bettor bought Learner Tien during a sharp pre-event volume and price surge, though the market is now effectively fully priced.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved bets and is up about $23.9K lifetime.
- The buy came during a 25x volume spike and a 16-point price jump in five minutes.
- They entered at 90¢ before the market moved to roughly 100¢, leaving little room to copy now.
$1,050 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 78%
Repeat new wallet buying dip
New repeat large bettor bought Learner Tien amid a major pre-event volume spike and sharp price move, though the wallet has limited resolved history and is currently underwater from 61¢ to 50¢.
- A new wallet has now made 4 flagged large bets, with about $5K total flagged and early profit of $2.3K.
- This market saw a 23x volume spike before the match, suggesting unusually heavy pre-event positioning.
- The bettor bought Learner Tien at 61¢ after a big move, while the market has since fallen to 50¢.
$1,073 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 43%
4-wallet Bublik contrarian flow
A four-wallet cluster is taking the Bublik side into a huge pre-event volume spike, with the largest flow effectively buying Bublik via selling Tien from profitable wallets despite sharp adverse price movement.
- Four wallets put $26.8K on the Bublik side during a 60x volume spike.
- Two profitable bettors are involved, including one up $203.7K lifetime and another winning 80% of resolved bets.
- The biggest trade effectively bought Bublik around 46¢ while the market now shows him near 30¢.
$26,788 on Alexander Bublik
Profitable serial bettor flip
Highly profitable serial tennis bettor flipped into Learner Tien during a one-sided volume surge that moved the price sharply from 54% to 84%.
- This bettor has a strong record: 73% wins and over $7.5M in lifetime profit.
- They bought $7.1K of Learner Tien at 54¢ before the market jumped to 84¢.
- Four wallets bought the same side for $24.6K during a 60x volume spike.
$7,149 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial trader flips
High-scoring alert from a profitable serial sports trader flipping into Learner Tien amid one-sided flow, a major volume spike, and a 27-point price move.
- This bettor has a long track record: 67% wins across 1,089 resolved bets and about $319k in profit.
- Four wallets bought Learner Tien in the same window, totaling about $24.6k on one side.
- The market is moving hard with a 60x volume spike and Learner Tien up 27 percentage points.
$13,877 on Learner Tien | Wallet win rate: 67%
4-wallet Bublik flow
Coordinated one-sided Bublik buying and a large pre-event volume spike make this worth watching despite this wallet's mediocre, unprofitable history and bad current mark-to-market.
- 4 wallets bought Alexander Bublik in the same window, totaling about $26K on one side.
- The market saw a 28x volume spike and the price moved sharply, suggesting a rush of positioning before the match.
- This specific bettor is very active across 242 events, though their lifetime results are only 56% and down $21.6K.
$1,095 on Alexander Bublik | Wallet win rate: 56%
One-sided Bublik cluster
Coordinated Bublik buying with a serial cross-market bettor and a large pre-event volume spike is notable, though this specific entry has moved sharply against the trade.
- 4 wallets bought Alexander Bublik the same way, totaling about $26K in one-sided flow.
- This bettor has traded across 81 events and is up about $19.5K lifetime over 618 resolved bets.
- The market saw a 28x volume spike before the match, but Bublik has fallen from this 54¢ entry to about 30¢ now.
$1,080 on Alexander Bublik | Wallet win rate: 58%
Profitable whale flips to Tien
Strong Tien-side flow includes a highly profitable serial cross-market trader, a 28x volume spike, and a sharp 35-point move toward Tien.
- A bettor up $7.5M lifetime bought Tien at 54¢ before the move to 70¢.
- This market saw a 28x volume spike and Tien’s odds jumped 35 points in one day.
- Three wallets put $9.7K on the same Tien direction, including one Bublik sell that converts to Tien exposure.
$9,706 on Learner Tien
7-wallet Tien upset flow
Seven wallets put $14.4K on the Tien upset amid a 16.8x volume spike, though wallet quality is mixed and two trades look like flipping out of prior Bublik positions.
- Seven wallets are all backing the same 22¢ underdog, totaling $14.4K on Learner Tien.
- Market volume spiked 16.8x above normal before the match, suggesting fresh coordinated interest.
- Two profitable wallets in the group are involved, including one up $188K lifetime.
$14,412 on Learner Tien
79% serial sports winner
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 79% historical win rate bought $5,000 of Alexander Bublik amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $349K lifetime.
- They have traded across 653 events with over $3.3M in activity, suggesting a serious repeat sports bettor.
- The market saw a 44x pre-event volume spike, adding momentum behind the Bublik side.
$5,000 on Alexander Bublik | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x5fea...78b1 — Outcome 25577756, $16,119
- 0x3257...2f3b — Outcome 25577756, $12,500 (54% win rate)
- 0x0ebb...cb1a — Outcome 25577756, $11,810 (69% win rate)
- 0x4f75...af7e — Outcome 25577756, $11,440 (79% win rate)
- 0xeb5a...57fc — Outcome 25577756, $10,000
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 25577756, $9,874 (73% win rate)
- 0xfc0c...cfc9 — Outcome 25577756, $9,717 (58% win rate)
- 0x4b71...80ec — Outcome 25577756, $7,889 (48% win rate)
- 0x479e...91c3 — Outcome 25577756, $6,410 (79% win rate)
- 0xeaf3...e802 — Outcome 25577756, $6,300 (88% win rate)
