What does this AI lab Millennium Prize prediction market cover?

It covers whether an eligible AI lab, or an official representative, announces that it has solved one of five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by the deadline.

When does the market resolve?

The announcement deadline is 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab or its official representative announces a solution to any qualifying problem before the stated deadline. Otherwise, it resolves No.

Where can I track the AI lab Millennium Prize odds?

You can follow the market page for the latest Polymarket price, trading activity, and smart money signals as participants update their forecasts.

Part of: AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether an eligible AI lab or its official representative will announce a solution to another qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Covered problems include the Riemann Hypothesis, P vs. NP, Yang-Mills, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture; the market resolves on January 1, 2027 UTC. Current odds were not included in the supplied market metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,728.

Categories: Math, Tech, Science, AI

Notable Trades

Serial trader buys No in thin market

A highly experienced serial trader placed a large No bet representing 76% of recent market volume, though the available record does not clearly prove pricing edge at this entry.

This bettor has won 94% of 1,480 resolved trades and is up $326,559 lifetime.
The $1,728 No position accounts for roughly 76% of the market's recent 24-hour volume.
The trader has placed bets across 58 events and 67 markets, making this more than an isolated wager.

$1,728 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%