Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,191.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures

Notable Trades

Elite sports trader fades rally

A highly proven cross-market sports trader with 81% win rate and +$628k lifetime P&L is buying Iran No despite the market's recent Yes rally.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $628k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.26M placed across 467 events.
Buying No at 32¢ goes against a sharp Yes rally, implying they see Iran’s knockout odds as overstated.

$1,595 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp bettor buying contrarian No

Sharp wallet with an 83% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is taking a contrarian No position after Iran Yes odds surged.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $2.8K lifetime.
They are buying No at 25¢ after Yes jumped 20 points in a day.
The 25¢ entry implies about a 4x payout if Iran fails to advance.

$1,596 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Proven sharp buying No

Surface despite the low composite score because a proven profitable wallet with an 82% historical win rate bought No on Iran advancing.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $91K lifetime.
They have beaten market odds by 28 percentage points across 182 resolved bets.
Buying No at 39¢ goes against the current 62% Yes price, signaling a clear contrarian view.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0x9106...afcb — Outcome 31727959, $42,345 (72% win rate)
0xab1c...aadd — Outcome 31727959, $5,052 (47% win rate)
0x0a61...2727 — Outcome 31727959, $5,000 (95% win rate)
0x4c5e...8819 — Outcome 31727959, $4,668 (40% win rate)
0x6eb1...b027 — Outcome 31727959, $4,485
0xd4e7...b0f7 — Outcome 31727959, $2,263
0xb766...1d83 — Outcome 31727959, $1,878 (52% win rate)
0x1a2f...647a — Outcome 31727959, $1,548 (65% win rate)
0xd449...450f — Outcome 31727959, $1,125
0xfd97...0ec5 — Outcome 31727959, $1,044 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

Zverev wins French Open

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ResolvedWorld Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages$4,191 tracked3 signalsFIFA World CupSports2026 FIFA World CupSoccerTeam PropsTournament Futures

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Yes”

66¢

52¢

38¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction