Will France win on 2026-07-18?

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,843,007.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

38-wallet linked No coalition

A large linked-wallet coalition bought No while the market repriced sharply, with several participants showing strong historical profitability and meaningful edge.

38 linked wallets bought No for roughly $765,000, driving No from about 56% to 96%.
Several participants have strong records, including 82% wins with $1.0M profit and 97% wins across 1,280 resolved positions.
The flow followed a 76.7x volume spike, suggesting unusually strong coordinated conviction rather than routine trading.

$765,457 on No

83% winner adding Yes

Proven profitable sports bettor with an 83% record and strong cross-market history is adding to a France Yes position at even odds.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $76K lifetime.
They are a serial sports trader across 65 events with the same 83% win rate.
They are adding to an existing Yes position at 50¢, suggesting continued conviction.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

Sharp joins 7-wallet No flow

Sharp 81% sports bettor is adding to a No position alongside 7-wallet one-sided flow, though the market is highly liquid and the bet size is modest.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $35.5K lifetime.
Seven wallets are all buying No in the same window, totaling $13.2K.
They are adding to an existing No position around 49¢, showing continued conviction.

$1,264 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

81% winner adding size

A highly profitable 81% win-rate wallet with a huge cross-market history is adding a large Yes position at 51¢.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $3.2M lifetime.
They added $67.7K at 51¢, bringing their open Yes position to about $133K.
This is a serial cross-market trader with over $10.7M deployed across 551 events.

$67,657 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

83% winner adding Yes

Proven profitable sports bettor with an 83% record and strong cross-market history is adding to a France Yes position at even odds.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $76K lifetime.
They are a serial sports trader across 65 events with the same 83% win rate.
They are adding to an existing Yes position at 50¢, suggesting continued conviction.

$5,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

95% sharp adding Yes

A highly profitable 95% win-rate wallet is adding a large $58k Yes bet to an existing France position at even odds.

This bettor has won 95% of resolved bets and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
They added $58k at 50¢ to an existing Yes position, bringing invested size on this market to roughly $174k.
This is a serial cross-market bettor with activity across 49 events and a strong historical record.

$58,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

85% winner doubling down

Proven sports/cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate is adding to an existing France Yes position at even odds.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $287,934 lifetime.
They have a long cross-market record across 38 events, suggesting this is a repeatable sports edge rather than a one-off bet.
They are adding to an existing Yes position, bringing visible conviction at a 50¢ entry.

$15,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable whale adding Yes

Profitable serial cross-market bettor is adding a large $150k France Yes position at 50¢ amid a major pre-event volume spike.

This bettor wins 71% of resolved trades and is up about $401k lifetime.
They put another $150k on Yes at 50¢, bringing their open France position to about $301k.
This wallet has traded across 25 events with $1.2M total volume, and this market just saw a 293x volume spike.

$150,330 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

26-wallet sharp Yes cluster

A large 26-wallet one-sided cluster is buying Yes at 50¢, supported by several profitable repeat traders and existing positions being increased before the match.

26 wallets bought the same side for $394K, with nearly all flow going into Yes at 50¢.
Several buyers have strong records, including one up $288K with 85% wins and another 32-for-32 on resolved bets.
Multiple wallets are adding to existing Yes positions, suggesting continued conviction rather than a one-off trade.

$773,879 on Yes

Sharp bettor adding Yes

A high-performing sports bettor with an 86% resolved win rate is building a meaningful Yes position at even-money odds.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $5.9k lifetime.
They have built an $8.9k Yes position around 50¢, showing continued conviction.
Entry at 50¢ implies a clean even-money copy with a tight 1¢ market spread.

$4,454 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 24700818, $1,091,179
0x2cff...59db — Outcome 27017352, $517,655 (100% win rate)
0xe549...2d54 — Outcome 27017352, $500,000 (99% win rate)
0xe9a6...627b — Outcome 27017352, $368,534 (100% win rate)
0x669d...c044 — Outcome 27017352, $356,707 (100% win rate)
0x4924...3782 — Outcome 27017352, $334,700 (51% win rate)
0xdb85...152f — Outcome 27017352, $333,084 (88% win rate)
0x8fbb...9a17 — Outcome 27017352, $319,603 (53% win rate)
0x20f7...c804 — Outcome 27017352, $240,000 (100% win rate)
0xe30e...6b87 — Outcome 27017352, $170,000 (89% win rate)

Related Theses

Belgium advances in low-scoring match

Covers 3 related markets

Low-scoring match, Villa held under two

Covers 3 related markets

Learner Tien will beat Gael Monfils

Covers 1 related market

Will France win on 2026-07-18?

ResolvedFrance vs. England$1,843,007 tracked10 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 18, 2026 If France wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “No”

101¢

73¢

46¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction