Part of: Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?

Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Meta will release its next-generation AI model, reportedly codenamed “Watermelon,” to the general public by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. The market follows Meta’s AI roadmap and related reporting, with smart money activity currently limited to one tracked signal totaling $1,499.

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,499.

Categories: AI, Meta, Tech, Watermelon, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Large bettor moves thin market

A large Yes position from a serial cross-market trader moved a thin market higher, creating a notable concentrated conviction signal despite only a middling historical win rate.

  • This trader put nearly $1,500 on Yes in a market with only $182 of recent volume.
  • The position entered at 86¢ and the market has since risen to about 90¢.
  • The wallet has traded across 60 markets and 41 events, with a 59% win rate and $130,000 lifetime profit.

$1,499 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7365...64da Yes, $1,737 (59% win rate)
  2. 0x321e...9292 No, $426
  3. 0xc602...7fc1 No, $383 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xbd14...76b4 No, $352 (44% win rate)
  5. 0x8765...ed81 No, $135
  6. 0x30fb...7db4 No, $109
  7. 0xc1ab...68f2 Yes, $100
  8. 0xfe41...9f23 No, $88
  9. 0x7ee6...6eb1 No, $67
  10. 0xeed8...35f0 No, $66 (18% win rate)

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Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?

79dMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?$1,499 tracked1 signalAIMetaTechWatermelonAI Releases
Yes
94¢
No
7¢

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
86¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?

2d ago

$1,499 on Yes at 86¢

86¢94¢8¢

Related Theses