Part of: US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

This Polymarket prediction market covers the 2026 US Open ATP match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech, scheduled for September 4, 2026. It resolves to the player who advances, with $15,478 in tracked smart money across two signals; current odds can change as traders update their positions.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,980.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader fades Medvedev

A highly experienced, profitable serial trader made a fresh $3,500 contrarian sale of Medvedev during a 331x pre-event volume spike, implying a buy on Rinderknech around 30%.

  • This trader has participated in 1,242 events and is up $1.03 million lifetime.
  • The $3,500 Medvedev sale was placed during a 331x surge in pre-event activity.
  • Selling Medvedev at 70¢ implies buying Rinderknech near 30%, against the market's 72% Medvedev odds.

$3,500 on Arthur Rinderknech | Wallet win rate: 58%

Whale scaling into Medvedev

A sizable bettor is adding to an existing Medvedev position amid a reported 331x pre-event volume spike, though the wallet's long-term record is only modestly profitable.

  • This bettor added $7,132 to Medvedev while already holding $19,051 at a 71¢ average entry.
  • The market saw a reported 331x spike versus its historical trading average, alongside unusually large one-sided bets.
  • The wallet has made $3.5M overall but wins only 54% of 41,835 resolved trades, so the signal is conviction rather than proven sharpness.

$11,978 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 55%

97% winner adds to Medvedev

A highly profitable serial bettor with a 97% win rate is adding to an existing Medvedev position at 74 cents.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 212 resolved trades and is up $51,873.
  • They are adding $1,502 to an existing Medvedev position at 74¢, signaling continued conviction.
  • The entry price is close to the current 74% market odds, with a liquid market and a tight 1¢ spread.

$1,502 on Daniil Medvedev | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfe78...0319 Outcome 44784349, $73,035 (65% win rate)
  2. 0x2a69...d2f7 Outcome 44784349, $31,499 (70% win rate)
  3. 0x076d...8d4c Outcome 44784349, $21,310 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x9c3c...e8c9 Outcome 44784349, $18,519 (95% win rate)
  5. 0x620b...2e9f Outcome 44784349, $12,000 (91% win rate)
  6. 0xacf8...e791 Outcome 44784349, $9,094 (71% win rate)
  7. 0xf5a3...9e12 Outcome 44784349, $7,407
  8. 0x9703...69c2 Outcome 44784349, $6,816
  9. 0x1ab8...1b4a Outcome 44784349, $6,017 (55% win rate)
  10. 0x0079...31c7 Outcome 44784349, $2,563 (65% win rate)

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US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

ResolvedUS Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech$16,980 tracked3 signalsTennisSportsGames

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “Daniil Medvedev
75¢
72¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

7d ago

$3,500 on Arthur Rinderknech at 30¢

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

7d ago

$11,978 on Daniil Medvedev at 73¢

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

7d ago

$1,502 on Daniil Medvedev at 74¢

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