Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Elon Musk will make between 40 and 64 qualifying posts on X between April 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and April 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count, while most replies do not. The market resolves on April 20, 2026, based on the final tracked post total during that window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 18 12:00 PM ET to April 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,442.
Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automation 200 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Profitable 4-wallet cluster
A profitable wallet with a 75% win rate bought Yes at 84¢, and it belongs to a 4-wallet funded cluster that has shown up across prior runs on a fast-moving market.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $30.9k lifetime
- Four wallets funded by the same address have appeared together on this thesis across prior runs
- They bought at 84¢ while this market jumped 44.5 points in a day, showing strong momentum
$1,663 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Sharp bettor buys No
A proven sharp wallet with a 76% win rate and strong edge bought No at 46¢ in a liquid event market after a big recent move, making this a credible copy-trade signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and has made about $167k profit across 45 resolved markets
- They bought No at 46¢, a price that implies roughly a 54% chance this range misses
- The wallet’s average winning entry is 36¢, suggesting they tend to profit by buying mispriced long shots
$1,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $63,635
- 0x3f0c...3fd7 — Yes, $14,568 (45% win rate)
- 0xb89f...f169 — Yes, $6,789
- 0xc4b2...9a9b — No, $5,824 (87% win rate)
- 0xfafe...2e34 — Yes, $5,721 (44% win rate)
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — No, $5,163 (76% win rate)
- 0x93fd...7e2f — Yes, $4,576
- 0x878a...a429 — Yes, $3,651
- 0x952c...be27 — No, $3,516
- 0x35f3...cfd0 — Yes, $3,429
