Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market tracks whether Brazil will reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, resolving Yes if Brazil advances and No if they are mathematically eliminated. PolySpotter is tracking $2,669 in smart-money activity and 1 smart-money signal for this market, with resolution expected around July 4, 2026 unless tournament conditions trigger an earlier No outcome.
7 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,645.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Serial sports bettor
Serial cross-market sports bettor with a 75% resolved win rate made a price-moving Yes buy, though lifetime P&L is negative and the entry is now above market.
- This bettor has traded 39 markets across 37 events and wins 75% of resolved bets.
- The buy moved the Yes price sharply, suggesting strong conviction in Brazil advancing.
- Entry was 83¢, but the market has pulled back to about 72¢, so current pricing is cheaper than their fill.
$2,669 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
92% winner fading favorite
Sharp wallet with 92% resolved win rate sold Brazil Yes, equivalent to a high-conviction No stance, alongside a major downside price-impact signal.
- This bettor has won 11 of 12 resolved bets and is up $6.6k lifetime.
- They closed a $6.4k Brazil Yes position while the market briefly broke far below its recent range.
- Selling Yes at 34¢ is equivalent to buying No at 66¢, well above the current 28¢ No price.
$2,152 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
84% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Brazil Yes at 70¢, slightly below current market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $73.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 229 markets and $2.23M in total volume.
- Entry at 70¢ is just below the current 72¢ market price.
$1,169 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
84% winner buying Yes
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 84% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Brazil Yes at 70¢, slightly below current market.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $73.6K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 229 markets and $2.23M in total volume.
- Entry at 70¢ is just below the current 72¢ market price.
$3,701 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial sharp cross-market bettor
A proven serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Brazil Yes on a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $82K lifetime.
- They are a highly active cross-market trader, with $2.0M deployed across 208 markets.
- The $1.2K buy is meaningful in a quiet market with only $2.6K traded in the last 24 hours.
$1,184 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
86% winner backing Yes
Sharp serial cross-market sports bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying Brazil to reach the Round of 16 in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $82k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 207 markets and over $2.0M invested.
- They bought $3.2k of Yes in a quiet market, including one fill above the current 73% price.
$3,159 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable 77% winner
Sharp-wallet override: a profitable 77% winner made a large Yes bet that was nearly 5x the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $4.1K lifetime.
- Their $1.6K Yes buy was almost 5x the market’s entire 24h volume.
- Entry at 75¢ implies they see Brazil reaching the Round of 16 as underpriced.
$1,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x4aef...9337 — Outcome 69254358, $12,237 (71% win rate)
- 0xd604...cb5f — Outcome 69254358, $5,678 (68% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — Outcome 69254358, $3,237 (86% win rate)
- 0x5f8e...21b7 — Outcome 69254358, $3,163
- 0xbf3d...17a7 — Outcome 69254358, $2,985
- 0x5a21...9318 — Outcome 69254358, $2,955 (48% win rate)
- 0xde04...fa37 — Outcome 69254358, $2,903 (49% win rate)
- 0x43cb...84df — Outcome 69254358, $2,880
- 0x05f0...2469 — Outcome 69254358, $2,283
- 0x84f8...d348 — Outcome 60941235, $2,272 (89% win rate)
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