What does this WTI crude oil prediction market measure?

It measures whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures records a 1-minute candle with a final low at or below $75 before the market's April 2026 deadline.

How does this Polymarket resolve to Yes?

The market resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle for the active month WTI futures contract has a final low price of $75.00 or lower at any time between market creation and the end of the final trading day during April 2026.

What happens if WTI trades near $75 but never touches it?

If the final low on every qualifying 1-minute candle stays above $75, the market resolves No. Getting close does not count unless the listed threshold is actually hit or broken.

Why does the active month matter in this oil market?

WTI futures roll from one front-month contract to the next, so the market follows the active month rather than a fixed contract. That means the contract used for resolution can change during the life of the market according to the exchange schedule.

When does this WTI $75 market resolve?

This market resolves based on price action through the final trading day in April 2026, with the listed resolution date of April 30, 2026. If WTI hits $75 or lower before then, the outcome is Yes.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

This Polymarket asks whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures will print a 1-minute candle low of $75 or below at any point before the end of April 2026. The market resolves Yes if that price is touched even briefly, and No if WTI stays above $75 for the entire measurement window. It settles based on the final trading day in April 2026 under the market's active-month futures rules.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,777.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil

Notable Trades

86% winner oil thesis

A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader is expressing a broader oil-event thesis across 8 related markets, and this sell converts into a buy of No around 73¢.

This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $419k lifetime
They have placed $31.6k across 8 related oil markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off trade
Selling Yes at 27¢ is equivalent to buying No at 73¢, a bet that WTI stays above $75 for the rest of April

$1,348 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven cross-market oil bettor

A profitable, high-volume cross-market trader with nearly 900 resolved bets is building a broad thesis across seven related WTI price markets, making this $1.7k No bet worth tracking despite the modest size.

This bettor has won 65% of 897 resolved trades and is up about $201k overall
They have put nearly $50k across 7 related WTI markets, showing a coordinated view rather than a one-off bet
Bought No at 70¢, backing the view that WTI is unlikely to print a $75 low this month

$1,729 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

97% winner in oil markets

A wallet with a 97% win rate across 67 resolved markets is making a fresh cross-market commodity bet, which is notable even without other supporting signals.

This bettor wins 97% of their trades and is up about $66.5k across 67 resolved markets
They have placed $38.2k across 3 related oil markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 67¢, meaning they likely think the market is overstating the odds of WTI falling to $75 or lower this month

$4,730 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Proven cross-market oil bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with 892 resolved bets and nearly $200k profit is building the same thesis across 7 related WTI levels, making this a credible directional signal despite the single trade size being modest.

This bettor has 892 resolved trades, wins 65% of the time, and is up about $196k overall
They have put nearly $52k across 7 related WTI markets, which points to a clear event-wide oil view
They bought No at 72¢, meaning the copyable angle is buying Yes on the opposite side at about 28¢

$4,096 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

79% win-rate oil bettor

A proven profitable bettor with a 79% win rate and strong edge bought No at 74¢ on a liquid oil market after a sharp 1-day move lower in Yes odds.

This bettor wins 79% of their resolved trades and is up $36k across 63 markets.
They bought No at 74¢ after Yes fell 12.5 points in a day, suggesting they agree the $75 low is now less likely.
This is a fresh $1.6k position in a liquid macro market, making it more useful as a signal than a random thin-market bet.

$1,609 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

90% win-rate oil bettor

A bettor with a 90% win rate and positive edge is buying No at 61¢ in a fast-moving WTI threshold market, making this a credible sharp-positioning alert despite modest size.

This bettor wins 90% of their trades, with 129 wins in 144 resolved markets
They bought No at 61¢ after this market jumped 27 points in a day, suggesting they still see the drop-to-$75 odds as too high
They also traded another market in the same oil event, pointing to a broader WTI view rather than a one-off bet

$1,542 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

97% winner joins oil cluster

Three wallets aligned on Yes in this WTI floor market, led by a 97% win-rate trader deploying correlated bets across the same event while price has already surged sharply.

A bettor who wins 97% of resolved trades is part of this 3-wallet push into the same oil outcome.
All 3 wallets landed on Yes within minutes, totaling $3.8k, while this market is already up 30 points in a day.
They entered around 40-48¢, suggesting they see the April $75 low as materially more likely than the market implied.

$3,834 on Yes

Sharp oil thesis bettor

A profitable 75% win-rate wallet is building a consistent cross-market oil thesis, buying No at 81¢ in a liquid market that has recently moved toward Yes.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $931 across 24 settled markets.
They have put $5,051 across 3 related oil markets, showing a coordinated event-level view rather than a one-off bet.
They bought No at 81¢ while this market has moved 7.5 points in a day, signaling conviction on the opposite side of recent momentum.

$2,022 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

97% winner repeats oil thesis

A wallet with a 97% win rate is expressing the same cross-market oil thesis again here, buying No at 85¢ in a liquid event market.

This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades with a $66.8k lifetime profit.
They have bet $25.8k across 3 related oil markets, showing a coordinated event-wide view.
Buying No at 85¢ suggests they see the April $75 downside trigger as still overpriced.

$1,836 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Pro oil event trader

A proven high-volume trader with 795 resolved bets and $118k profit is taking a fresh cross-market position on a 7-market WTI thesis by buying the 12% tail outcome via a No sale.

This bettor has 795 resolved bets, a 65% win rate, and is up $118k overall
They have put $46k across 7 related WTI markets, which suggests a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
This trade effectively buys Yes at 12¢, a cheap tail-price entry in a market with solid volume and a tight 1¢ spread

$3,571 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%