Part of: Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
This Polymarket-style prediction market covers the Roland Garros ATP match between Matteo Arnaldi and Flavio Cobolli, scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The market resolves to the player who advances, with resolution expected by June 12, 2026; PolySpotter is tracking $3,418 in smart money across 2 signals, including recent Cobolli flow and an Arnaldi whale cluster.
32 smart money signals detected, totaling $954,983.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
88% winner backs Cobolli
Elite sports bettor with an 88% win rate and $190k profit is effectively backing Flavio Cobolli at 51¢.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved positions and is up $190k lifetime.
- They are a serial sports trader across 117 events with the same 88% hit rate.
- Selling Arnaldi at 49¢ is equivalent to buying Cobolli at 51¢.
$1,237 on Flavio Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable high-sample bettor
Surfaced because a profitable high-sample sports bettor with a 76% resolved win rate is effectively backing Matteo Arnaldi at even money.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 989 bets and is up $3,079 lifetime.
- Selling Cobolli at 50¢ is the same as buying Arnaldi at 50¢.
- The market is very liquid, so the main signal is the bettor’s long track record rather than trade size.
$2,181 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 76%
79% winner backing Cobolli
Sharp wallet with a 79% win rate and nearly $60k lifetime profit is effectively backing Flavio Cobolli despite the market being near even.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $60k lifetime.
- Their wins came at average 41¢ odds, suggesting a strong record finding mispriced underdogs or coin-flips.
- Selling Matteo Arnaldi at 49¢ is equivalent to backing Flavio Cobolli around 51¢.
$1,087 on Flavio Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 79%
80% winner buying Arnaldi
Sharp tennis/cross-market bettor with an 80% record and $120k profit is effectively buying Arnaldi at even odds.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $120k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events with the same 80% hit rate.
- Selling Cobolli at 50¢ is equivalent to buying Arnaldi at 50¢.
$1,743 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 80%
New profitable whale backing Cobolli
A very new, already-profitable whale led a $78.6k one-sided move toward Cobolli amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- A 2-day-old bettor put nearly $74k behind Cobolli and is already up $161k across recent trades.
- Four wallets moved the same way for $78.6k total, adding conviction despite a highly liquid market.
- Volume is running 38x above normal and the price has moved 18 points in Cobolli’s direction over the past day.
$78,613 on Flavio Cobolli
New profitable wallet joins Arnaldi flow
A very new but already profitable wallet is effectively moving into Arnaldi alongside one-sided flow from four wallets and a major pre-match volume spike.
- This 4-day-old bettor has already been flagged 9 times and is up $2.5K across early positions.
- Four wallets are all taking the Arnaldi side, totaling about $10.2K in one-sided flow.
- Market volume is surging 61x above its historical pace ahead of the match.
$4,972 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 100%
84% winner backs Arnaldi
Sharp profitable tennis bettor sold Cobolli, equivalent to buying Arnaldi at 50¢, alongside one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $22.5k lifetime.
- Their sell of Cobolli is effectively a 50¢ buy on Arnaldi.
- Four wallets are betting the same way, with market volume spiking 61.6x above normal.
$3,352 on Matteo Arnaldi | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp bettor joins 13-wallet Cobolli flow
Sharp 80% lifetime bettor bought Flavio Cobolli while 13 wallets collectively pushed $209k the same direction amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $173k lifetime.
- 13 wallets are all buying the same side, totaling about $209k on Flavio Cobolli.
- Market volume spiked 264x before the match, suggesting a major wave of positioning.
$1,133 on Flavio Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 80%
87% winner joins Cobolli flow
A highly profitable 87% lifetime winner bought Flavio Cobolli, aligning with a 7-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $267k lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought the same side, totaling $29k on Flavio Cobolli.
- The bettor entered at 52¢ and the market has already moved to 66¢.
$1,256 on Flavio Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable sharp with 7-wallet flow
Profitable high-volume sports bettor bought Flavio Cobolli at 51¢ alongside a 7-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has a strong long-term record: 67% wins across 1,207 resolved bets and +$258k lifetime profit.
- Seven wallets bought the same side, totaling $29k on Flavio Cobolli.
- The trade entered at 51¢ and the market has already moved to 66¢, suggesting the flow was early.
$4,080 on Flavio Cobolli | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x0979...8d9b — Outcome 43882079, $28,571 (69% win rate)
- 0x45e4...7e20 — Outcome 10031659, $25,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x0826...0b32 — Outcome 10031659, $12,000 (62% win rate)
- 0x01c7...e995 — Outcome 10031659, $2,599 (62% win rate)
- 0xdc4f...9804 — Outcome 10031659, $2,195
- 0x00c8...9ccd — Outcome 10031659, $1,373 (76% win rate)
- 0x5054...0aaf — Outcome 10031659, $1,132 (58% win rate)
- 0x57c8...3d9b — Outcome 10031659, $800
- 0x8ea1...c38e — Outcome 43882079, $630 (25% win rate)
- 0x7edb...7993 — Outcome 10031659, $478
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