Part of: Spain vs. Austria - More Markets

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

This Polymarket spread market asks whether Spain will beat Austria by 2 or more goals in their FIFA World Cup match on July 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. It resolves to Spain if Spain covers the -1.5 spread; otherwise it resolves to Austria, based on the official final score from FIFA. PolySpotter is tracking $5,000 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austria". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $44,119.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup

Notable Trades

Sharp serial sports bettor

Sharp sports bettor with an 86% win record and $104k profit is buying Spain -1.5 at 49¢, backed by a strong cross-market track record.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $104k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 73 events with the same 86% win record, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
  • Entry at 49¢ implies they see Spain -1.5 as mispriced near even odds.

$5,000 on Spain | Wallet win rate: 86%

95% winner buying Spain spread

Sharp sports bettor with a 95% resolved win rate and strong cross-market history bought Spain -1.5 amid a major pre-event volume spike.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $77K lifetime.
  • They are a proven sports-market regular across 27 events with $231K in cross-market bets.
  • A $4.1K buy at 48¢ comes as market volume spiked over 600x versus its historical pace.

$4,067 on Spain | Wallet win rate: 95%

97% win-rate sports sharp

Highly profitable serial sports bettor with a 97% resolved win rate bought Spain -1.5 at 48¢, making this a strong copy-trade candidate.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and is up $172K lifetime.
  • They have bet across 151 events with the same 97% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
  • Entry at 48¢ implies they see Spain -1.5 as meaningfully underpriced.

$7,894 on Spain | Wallet win rate: 97%

New repeat whale, 6-0 start

A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with $153k in flagged trades and a 6-0 resolved start bought $7.3k of Austria on the spread.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has already made 19 flagged large bets totaling $153k.
  • The bettor is 6-0 on resolved trades so far, though the track record is still short.
  • They bought $7.3k of Austria at 51¢ in a market with tight odds.

$14,868 on Austria | Wallet win rate: 100%

New repeat whale, 6-0 start

A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with $153k in flagged trades and a 6-0 resolved start bought $7.3k of Austria on the spread.

  • This 6-day-old wallet has already made 19 flagged large bets totaling $153k.
  • The bettor is 6-0 on resolved trades so far, though the track record is still short.
  • They bought $7.3k of Austria at 51¢ in a market with tight odds.

$7,291 on Austria | Wallet win rate: 100%

92% winner backs Spain spread

Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 92% resolved win rate bought $5,000 of Spain -1.5 at 50¢ on a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $541k lifetime.
  • The $5,000 buy was about 2x the market’s recent 24h volume.
  • Entry at 50¢ implies they see Spain -1.5 as mispriced near even money.

$5,000 on Spain | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc31d...4ebe Austria, $150,327 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xd86e...45ce Spain, $84,720 (95% win rate)
  3. 0x3dfb...abaf Spain, $69,737 (47% win rate)
  4. 0x457f...2a64 Austria, $42,888 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x84cf...2f63 Spain, $32,531 (46% win rate)
  6. 0x204f...5e14 Spain, $27,198 (53% win rate)
  7. 0x1341...0853 Austria, $25,000 (85% win rate)
  8. 0xf421...cff4 Spain, $16,462 (97% win rate)
  9. 0x65b5...aa71 Austria, $16,326 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x0520...e4e0 Austria, $11,887 (48% win rate)

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Covers 1 related market

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

15hSpain vs. Austria - More Markets$44,119 tracked6 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFIFA World Cup
Spain
49¢
Austria
51¢

In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Austria". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on fifa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Price History — “Austria
54¢
51¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

26m ago

$5,000 on Spain at 49¢

49¢49¢

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

3h ago

$4,067 on Spain at 48¢

48¢49¢1¢

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

3h ago

$7,894 on Spain at 48¢

48¢49¢1¢

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

1d ago

$14,868 on Austria at 51¢

51¢51¢

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

1d ago

$7,291 on Austria at 51¢

51¢51¢

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

3d ago

$5,000 on Spain at 50¢

50¢49¢1¢

Related Theses