Part of: UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
This Polymarket-style UFC prediction market covers the featherweight main card fight between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night, scheduled for May 16, 2026. The market resolves to the officially declared winner, with a 50-50 resolution if the bout is a draw, no contest, canceled, not scored, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $8,636 in smart money across 2 signals, including recent sharp activity on both Allen flow and Costa underdog clusters.
This market will resolve to "Arnold Allen" if Arnold Allen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Melquizael Costa" if Melquizael Costa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $190,776.
Categories: Sports, UFC, Games
Notable Trades
Sharp contrarian on underdog
A highly profitable 81% win-rate bettor joined a 4-wallet contrarian Costa position, though the market has since moved sharply toward Arnold Allen.
- The lead Costa buyer wins 81% of resolved bets and is up about $899k lifetime.
- Four wallets put $7.6k on Costa or against Allen, creating a coordinated underdog fade.
- This is high-risk: Costa entries were around 50¢ earlier, but the market has since crashed to 10¢ after heavy Allen buying.
$7,636 on Melquizael Costa
Linked cluster moved Allen
Strong coordinated Arnold Allen buying with linked-wallet flow, major price impact, and a profitable high-volume sports trader who entered far below the current market.
- Six wallets bought Arnold Allen the same way, including linked wallets, for $16.8K total.
- This trader is up $467K lifetime across more than 2,300 resolved bets.
- They entered at 59¢ before Allen surged to 90¢, alongside an 18x volume spike.
$1,000 on Arnold Allen | Wallet win rate: 57%
81% sharp joins Costa cluster
A highly profitable 81% win-rate sports bettor bought Melquizael Costa alongside a 7-wallet one-sided cluster during a major pre-fight volume spike, despite the price later moving against them.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $899K lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought Melquizael Costa in the same window, totaling nearly $25K on one side.
- Volume spiked 280x before the fight, and the current price is below this sharp bettor’s 53¢ entry.
$2,768 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp UFC bettor joins cluster
Sharp UFC bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and nearly $899k profit joined coordinated Costa buying amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $899k lifetime.
- Six wallets are buying Melquizael Costa the same way, totaling about $20.7k.
- Market volume spiked 309x before the fight, suggesting fresh conviction on Costa.
$2,380 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 81%
87% sharp joins Costa cluster
Elite profitable sports wallet bought Melquizael Costa alongside one-sided cluster flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $2.34M lifetime.
- Seven wallets bought the same side, totaling about $23K on Melquizael Costa.
- Pre-fight volume spiked 337x, suggesting a sudden rush of money into this matchup.
$4,809 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable serial sports bettor
High-scoring UFC alert with a very profitable serial sports bettor buying Costa alongside six-wallet one-sided flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor has traded 373 resolved markets and is up $1.74M lifetime.
- Six wallets are all buying Melquizael Costa, totaling $10.8K in the same direction.
- Pre-fight volume spiked 650x versus the historical average, suggesting fresh money is moving into this side.
$3,059 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial bettor joins Costa flow
Profitable serial sports bettor joined a 6-wallet one-sided move on Melquizael Costa amid a major pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor is up $591K across 1,787 resolved trades, with over $50M in prior volume.
- Six wallets are all buying Melquizael Costa, totaling $10.8K in same-direction flow.
- Market volume spiked 650x versus its historical average before the fight.
$2,107 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 62%
Six-wallet underdog push
Coordinated one-sided buying and a major pre-fight volume spike make this worth surfacing, even though the individual wallet is not a proven profitable sharp.
- Six wallets bought the same side, totaling $10.8K in coordinated flow.
- Market volume spiked 650x versus its historical average ahead of the fight.
- Entry at 47¢ implies the group sees near-even odds as mispriced.
$1,069 on Melquizael Costa | Wallet win rate: 61%
97% winner joins cluster
Surface because a highly profitable 97% winner is part of a four-wallet Costa buy cluster during a major pre-fight volume spike, despite larger opposing Allen flow.
- A bettor who wins 97% of resolved bets is buying here and is up $28K lifetime.
- Four wallets bought the same side for $8.1K at 47¢ during a huge pre-fight volume surge.
- Entry at 47¢ is close to a coin flip, so the trade is betting this side is being slightly underrated.
$8,091 on Melquizael Costa
98% sharp joins Allen flow
A highly profitable 98% win-rate bettor bought Arnold Allen amid heavy one-sided flow and a major pre-fight volume spike.
- This bettor has won 149 of 152 resolved positions and is up $407K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 132 events with a 98% hit rate.
- Three wallets are buying Arnold Allen the same way, totaling $291K in one-sided flow.
$1,980 on Arnold Allen | Wallet win rate: 98%
Top Holders
- 0x4bff...fc26 — Arnold Allen, $629,643 (55% win rate)
- 0x1117...3532 — Melquizael Costa, $270,059 (62% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — Melquizael Costa, $175,000 (62% win rate)
- 0xa38a...821d — Melquizael Costa, $104,554 (57% win rate)
- 0xdb75...0252 — Arnold Allen, $101,851 (55% win rate)
- 0x1136...0c2e — Arnold Allen, $100,190 (57% win rate)
- 0x12ec...41ae — Melquizael Costa, $76,381 (67% win rate)
- 0x23c8...f293 — Melquizael Costa, $68,234 (44% win rate)
- 0x8f8c...e275 — Melquizael Costa, $65,291 (77% win rate)
- 0x9e5e...fd91 — Arnold Allen, $65,000 (98% win rate)
