Part of: National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik
National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik
This prediction market covers the National Bank Open tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Jakub Mensik, scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. It resolves to the player who advances; PolySpotter is tracking $1,000 in smart money and recent betting activity that favors Mensik. The market is scheduled to resolve by August 13, 2026, unless the match is canceled or remains undecided.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $42,071.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
14-wallet Mensik betting cluster
A 14-wallet, three-funder cluster placed $122,506 on Jakub Mensik, strongly corroborating this bettor's $1,000 entry despite only modest individual edge.
- Fourteen wallets backed Jakub Mensik for $122,506, with links to three shared funders.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,507 resolved trades and is up nearly $20,000 overall.
- The position was bought at 80¢ before Mensik reached the current 100¢ price.
$1,000 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 73%
Serial trader backing Mensik
A highly experienced serial trader with 527 resolved bets bought Mensik at 73¢ during a sharp 42.9-point upward price move.
- This bettor has won 76% of 527 resolved trades and is up nearly $300,000.
- The $2,497 Mensik purchase coincided with a sharp 42.9-point price surge, signaling strong market-moving conviction.
- The entry at 73¢ implies the trader sees Mensik as more likely than the market’s prior pricing suggested.
$1,490 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial trader backing Mensik
A highly experienced serial trader with 527 resolved bets bought Mensik at 73¢ during a sharp 42.9-point upward price move.
- This bettor has won 76% of 527 resolved trades and is up nearly $300,000.
- The $2,497 Mensik purchase coincided with a sharp 42.9-point price surge, signaling strong market-moving conviction.
- The entry at 73¢ implies the trader sees Mensik as more likely than the market’s prior pricing suggested.
$2,497 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 76%
Linked wallets piling into Mensik
Three wallets, including two linked accounts, added $17.3K to Jakub Mensik during a 260x volume spike, although their existing positions on both sides reduce the purity of the signal.
- Three wallets bought $17,276 of Jakub Mensik at 65–73¢, with two accounts sharing a funder.
- Trading volume was 260 times the historical average, suggesting unusually concentrated attention on the match.
- The wallets are adding to existing Mensik positions, though some also hold Fearnley and lack a standout win-rate edge.
$21,523 on Jakub Mensik
Large serial bettor backs Mensik
A highly active bettor placed a sizable Mensik position that represented 562% of detected 24-hour volume, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear odds-based edge.
- The $7,676 bet was 562% of the detected 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Jakub Mensik.
- This bettor has traded 4,076 events and 4,710 markets, with a 63% win rate across 34,243 resolved positions.
- Mensik was bought at 69¢ while the market is around 70¢, implying the trader sees meaningful value at current odds.
$1,719 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 63%
Large serial bettor backs Mensik
A highly active bettor placed a sizable Mensik position that represented 562% of detected 24-hour volume, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear odds-based edge.
- The $7,676 bet was 562% of the detected 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Jakub Mensik.
- This bettor has traded 4,076 events and 4,710 markets, with a 63% win rate across 34,243 resolved positions.
- Mensik was bought at 69¢ while the market is around 70¢, implying the trader sees meaningful value at current odds.
$2,166 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 63%
Large serial bettor backs Mensik
A highly active bettor placed a sizable Mensik position that represented 562% of detected 24-hour volume, though the wallet's track record does not show a clear odds-based edge.
- The $7,676 bet was 562% of the detected 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Jakub Mensik.
- This bettor has traded 4,076 events and 4,710 markets, with a 63% win rate across 34,243 resolved positions.
- Mensik was bought at 69¢ while the market is around 70¢, implying the trader sees meaningful value at current odds.
$7,676 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 63%
40-0 sharp scaling into Fearnley
A proven 40-0 bettor is adding $4,000 to an existing Fearnley position at 31¢ in a thin market.
- This bettor has won 100% of 40 resolved positions, with a 53% average entry price and $101,297 in realized profit.
- The $4,000 purchase equals nearly three times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a relatively thin market.
- This is an addition to an existing $13,035 Fearnley position rather than a routine exit, reinforcing the directional thesis.
$4,000 on Jacob Fearnley | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x2a69...d2f7 — Outcome 87291250, $62,735 (72% win rate)
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 87291250, $58,224 (63% win rate)
- 0xb7ab...a2d1 — Outcome 87291250, $13,035 (100% win rate)
- 0xdb85...152f — Outcome 87291250, $10,000 (84% win rate)
- 0xaa11...650b — Outcome 87291250, $5,000
- 0x7b10...acab — Outcome 87291250, $2,647 (57% win rate)
- 0x9015...281f — Outcome 87291250, $2,405 (79% win rate)
- 0xf148...0b4f — Outcome 87291250, $2,040 (78% win rate)
- 0x1f35...95da — Outcome 87291250, $2,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x5505...aa44 — Outcome 87291250, $1,715
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