What is the Bitcoin $100,000 by 2026 prediction market?

This market lets traders bet on whether Bitcoin will reach or exceed $100,000 before the end of 2026. It uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices as the official resolution source.

When does the BTC $100K market resolve?

The market can resolve Yes immediately if a qualifying Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high is at least $100,000 between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026. If Bitcoin does not hit that level during the window, it resolves No after the deadline, with the listed resolution date of Jan. 1, 2027 UTC.

What price source determines whether Bitcoin hit $100,000?

Resolution is based on Binance BTC/USDT high prices using 1-minute candles. If any final 1-minute candle high is equal to or above $100,000 during the specified period, the market resolves Yes.

How should I interpret the smart money signals on this market?

Smart money signals highlight activity from tracked profitable or high-conviction traders. For this market, PolySpotter has tracked $4,000 and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts showing both BTC upside buying and bearish or No-side activity.

Does Bitcoin need to close above $100,000 for this market to resolve Yes?

No. Bitcoin only needs a Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high to reach at least $100,000 during the resolution window. A close above $100,000 is not required.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026, based on any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high meeting or exceeding $100,000. The market resolves Yes immediately if that price is hit between Nov. 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and Dec. 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline. PolySpotter is tracking $4,000 in smart money activity and 1 signal on this BTC price target market.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $60,672.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Profitable crypto bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on BTC hitting $100k by end-2026, with cross-market crypto positioning.

This bettor has won 80% of 20 resolved bets and is up $19.3k lifetime.
They put $4,000 on No at 85¢, backing BTC to stay below $100k through 2026.
The wallet has also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader crypto thesis.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

90% winner fading BTC moonshot

Surface because this is a profitable 90% win-rate wallet taking a fresh No position after prior Yes exposure, despite only moderate signal strength.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $2.1K lifetime.
They flipped from a closed Yes position into No, suggesting a fresh bearish view on BTC reaching $100K.
Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence bet with limited upside but strong historical backing.

$1,699 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable cross-market BTC bear

Profitable wallet is building a $22K cross-market bearish Bitcoin thesis, including a $9.4K NO buy that was large relative to recent volume.

This wallet has won 70% of 27 resolved bets and is up $5.5K lifetime.
It has placed $22.3K across 4 related Bitcoin markets, pointing to a consistent bearish BTC thesis.
This $9.4K NO buy was over half the market’s 24h volume, with entry around 83¢.

$9,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Fresh whale buying BTC NO

Very new wallet is making repeat five-figure-sized crypto bets, including a $5.5k NO buy that was large versus recent market activity.

This wallet is under 4 hours old and has already had $11.3k in flagged large bets.
This $5.5k buy was about 72% of the market’s recent 24h volume, showing concentrated conviction.
They bought NO at 85¢, betting Bitcoin does not touch $100k by the end of 2026.

$5,465 on No

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% record is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 83¢.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.3k lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 83¢ implies they see limited chance of Bitcoin reaching $100k by end-2026.

$1,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 80% record is building a cross-market Bitcoin thesis, buying No on BTC reaching $100k by end-2026.

This bettor has won 80% of 154 resolved trades and is up $17.1k lifetime.
They have placed $11.9k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 82¢ implies a conservative bet, but the wallet’s track record makes it worth following.

$8,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable BTC ladder seller

A large, profitable wallet is expressing a consistent bearish Bitcoin thesis across five related markets, though this individual trade is modest and on a liquid market.

This wallet is up about $850k lifetime and has traded $37.8M across resolved markets.
It has put $171k across five related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader bearish thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 18¢ is equivalent to buying No at 82¢ on Bitcoin reaching $100k by the deadline.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

87% winner buying BTC Yes

Sharp wallet override: an 87% lifetime winner with +$179k P&L bought Yes on BTC reaching $100k despite the modest $1k size.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $179k lifetime.
Bought Yes at 20¢, implying they see better odds than the market’s current 18%.
They have $2.2k positioned across 2 related Bitcoin markets.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

80% winner crypto thesis

Profitable 80% winner is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 84¢ despite only a moderate alert score.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17,057 lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 84¢ implies confidence that Bitcoin stays below $100,000 through 2026.

$1,008 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market BTC bear

Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a repeated bearish BTC thesis across 5 related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying No at 82¢.

This wallet is up $831k lifetime and has traded $37.7M across resolved markets.
They have built a $165k cross-market position across 5 related Bitcoin markets.
This trade is effectively buying No at 82¢ as the Yes price has fallen 15 points over the past week.

$1,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%