What does the Bitcoin $100,000 by 2026 market predict?

It predicts whether Bitcoin will trade at or above $100,000 on Binance BTC/USDT before the end of December 31, 2026, using the final High price from any 1-minute candle.

How does this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves Yes if any eligible Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high is $100,000 or higher during the specified window. If that never happens, it resolves No after the deadline.

What is the resolution source for the BTC $100K market?

The official resolution source is Binance, specifically BTC/USDT High prices on the 1-minute chart.

When is the deadline for Bitcoin to hit $100,000?

Bitcoin must reach the $100,000 threshold by December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET. The listed resolution date is January 1, 2027 UTC.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,804 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts including high-win-rate traders buying BTC upside and Yes, as well as whale activity on No.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026, based on any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high meeting or exceeding that level. The market resolves to Yes immediately if the threshold is hit between November 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET; otherwise it resolves No on January 1, 2027. PolySpotter tracks live market pricing plus $2,804 in smart money activity and recent whale alerts for this BTC price target.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $73,640.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market crypto bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a long positive track record bought $8.9k of No on a crypto market, though the bet is on a heavy favorite with limited upside.

This bettor has traded 112 markets across 53 events and is up about $39k lifetime.
They put $8.9k on No, equal to 57% of the market’s 24h volume.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-conviction favorite bet with a capped but straightforward payout.

$2,804 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Serial cross-market crypto bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a long positive track record bought $8.9k of No on a crypto market, though the bet is on a heavy favorite with limited upside.

This bettor has traded 112 markets across 53 events and is up about $39k lifetime.
They put $8.9k on No, equal to 57% of the market’s 24h volume.
Entry at 90¢ is a high-conviction favorite bet with a capped but straightforward payout.

$8,934 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

99% winner BTC bear

A highly profitable 99% win-rate wallet is extending a $76.6k cross-market bearish BTC thesis by buying No at 88¢.

This bettor has won 107 of 108 resolved trades and is up $76k lifetime.
They have put $76.6k across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 88¢ is a conservative bet that Bitcoin does not touch $100k by the end of 2026.

$1,229 on No | Wallet win rate: 99%

Profitable crypto bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on BTC hitting $100k by end-2026, with cross-market crypto positioning.

This bettor has won 80% of 20 resolved bets and is up $19.3k lifetime.
They put $4,000 on No at 85¢, backing BTC to stay below $100k through 2026.
The wallet has also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader crypto thesis.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

90% winner fading BTC moonshot

Surface because this is a profitable 90% win-rate wallet taking a fresh No position after prior Yes exposure, despite only moderate signal strength.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $2.1K lifetime.
They flipped from a closed Yes position into No, suggesting a fresh bearish view on BTC reaching $100K.
Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence bet with limited upside but strong historical backing.

$1,699 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable cross-market BTC bear

Profitable wallet is building a $22K cross-market bearish Bitcoin thesis, including a $9.4K NO buy that was large relative to recent volume.

This wallet has won 70% of 27 resolved bets and is up $5.5K lifetime.
It has placed $22.3K across 4 related Bitcoin markets, pointing to a consistent bearish BTC thesis.
This $9.4K NO buy was over half the market’s 24h volume, with entry around 83¢.

$9,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Fresh whale buying BTC NO

Very new wallet is making repeat five-figure-sized crypto bets, including a $5.5k NO buy that was large versus recent market activity.

This wallet is under 4 hours old and has already had $11.3k in flagged large bets.
This $5.5k buy was about 72% of the market’s recent 24h volume, showing concentrated conviction.
They bought NO at 85¢, betting Bitcoin does not touch $100k by the end of 2026.

$5,465 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% record is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 83¢.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.3k lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 83¢ implies they see limited chance of Bitcoin reaching $100k by end-2026.

$1,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 80% record is building a cross-market Bitcoin thesis, buying No on BTC reaching $100k by end-2026.

This bettor has won 80% of 154 resolved trades and is up $17.1k lifetime.
They have placed $11.9k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 82¢ implies a conservative bet, but the wallet’s track record makes it worth following.

$8,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable BTC ladder seller

A large, profitable wallet is expressing a consistent bearish Bitcoin thesis across five related markets, though this individual trade is modest and on a liquid market.

This wallet is up about $850k lifetime and has traded $37.8M across resolved markets.
It has put $171k across five related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader bearish thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 18¢ is equivalent to buying No at 82¢ on Bitcoin reaching $100k by the deadline.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%