What does this Bitcoin $100,000 prediction market cover?

This market predicts whether Bitcoin will trade at or above $100,000 by December 31, 2026. It uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle “High” prices as the resolution source.

How does the market resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to “Yes” immediately if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between November 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET has a final high price of $100,000 or more.

When will the Bitcoin $100K by 2026 market resolve?

If Bitcoin does not hit the target earlier, the market is scheduled to resolve after the deadline, with a listed resolution date of January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC.

What is the resolution source for this BTC prediction market?

The official resolution source is Binance, specifically BTC/USDT high prices on the 1-minute chart at binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking on this market?

PolySpotter shows $3,141 in total smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal, with recent alerts highlighting profitable or high-win-rate traders buying BTC upside and Yes positions.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026, based on any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high at or above $100,000 during the specified window. The market resolves after the deadline, on January 1, 2027 UTC, unless it resolves early to “Yes” if the price target is hit. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,141 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this BTC upside market.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,988.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Six-market BTC upside bettor

Positive-P&L wallet is expressing a broader Bitcoin-upside thesis across 6 related markets, with this trade effectively buying Yes at 37¢.

This bettor is up about $9.8K lifetime and is positioning across 6 related Bitcoin markets.
The trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 37¢, matching the current ask on a liquid market.
They have put about $34K into this cross-market thesis, suggesting more than a one-off bet.

$3,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable BTC cross-market bettor

A profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a cross-market Bitcoin thesis across 5 related markets, though this specific $1.9k trade is modest in a liquid market.

This bettor is up $856K lifetime across more than $34M traded.
They have placed $142K across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader price thesis.
This trade is equivalent to buying No at 53¢, fading Bitcoin reaching $100K by the deadline.

$1,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%

Profitable BTC whale flips Yes

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Bitcoin thesis with $140k across four related markets and has flipped from No to buying Yes here.

This wallet is up about $829k lifetime while trading over $34M in resolved markets.
They have put $140k across four related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bullish thesis.
This trade buys Yes at 44¢ after previously closing a No position, a clear shift toward Bitcoin reaching $100k.

$2,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

84% winner buying BTC upside

Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is buying Yes on BTC reaching $100k by end-2026, with related positioning across the same event.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $242k lifetime.
They have $13.8k positioned across related Bitcoin milestone markets.
Entry at 41¢ implies they see BTC reaching $100k as underpriced.

$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

84% winner buys BTC Yes

A proven profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate bought Yes on BTC reaching $100k, though the position size is modest for a liquid long-dated market.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $242k lifetime.
They bought Yes at 40¢, implying a 2.5x payout if BTC touches $100k by end-2026.
The signal is track-record driven rather than size-driven, with only $1.0k placed in a liquid market.

$1,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%