Part of: World Cup: No. of Matches Decided by Penalty Shootout
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This prediction market asks whether at least 9 matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be decided by a penalty shootout. Only knockout-stage matches can count, and the market resolves after the tournament using official results, with resolution expected by July 20, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,490 in smart money and 1 signal, with recent alerts showing specialist and high-win-rate traders buying No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of matches decided by a penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A match is counted if it proceeds to a penalty shootout to determine the result. Only knockout-stage matches can be decided by shootout. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,234.
Categories: Sports, Tournament Futures, world cup, FIFA World Cup, Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
89% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 89% win rate over 2,332 resolved bets bought No on a quiet World Cup shootout-count market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades across 2,332 bets and is up $23,487 lifetime.
- They bought $2,490 of No in a market with only $2,289 liquidity, showing meaningful conviction.
- Entry at 83¢ has already moved to 88¢, suggesting the market is following their side.
$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
94% World Cup specialist
Sharp wallet with a 94% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought No on a thin World Cup shootout market as part of a broader cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 94% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $4.6k on No in a thin market, more than 2x the recent 24h volume.
- This is part of a broader World Cup shootout thesis across 4 markets totaling $24.8k.
$4,641 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
98% winner buying thin No
A highly profitable 98% winner put $5.1k into No on a very thin World Cup penalty-shootout market, moving the price sharply higher.
- This bettor wins 98% of resolved trades and is up $43k lifetime.
- They put $5.1k into No on a market with only $830 liquidity and a wide spread.
- The position pushed No from as low as 44¢ to 88¢, suggesting strong conviction.
$5,103 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x5fd8...ce32 — No, $7,350 (94% win rate)
- 0xd5d8...e9a1 — Yes, $7,000 (57% win rate)
- 0x8de2...8483 — No, $6,304 (89% win rate)
- 0x1104...002a — Yes, $1,769 (62% win rate)
- 0xb410...7736 — Yes, $1,630 (79% win rate)
- 0x9bf6...4a06 — Yes, $1,500
- 0x9a3f...914a — Yes, $779 (58% win rate)
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $490 (43% win rate)
- 0x4337...8882 — No, $486 (75% win rate)
- 0x4d02...bfec — No, $300
Related Theses
World Cup has few shootouts
Covers 4 related markets
Established nations reach knockouts
Covers 7 related markets