Part of: HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino
This Polymarket covers the HSBC Championships tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Adrian Mannarino, resolving to the player who advances. PolySpotter is tracking $1,125 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market, with resolution scheduled by June 22, 2026 at 08:00 UTC.
21 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,263.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
99% win-rate sharp bettor
Elite 99% win-rate wallet bought Mannarino before a major price move, with serial cross-market success and strong market momentum corroborating the trade.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $420K lifetime.
- They bought Adrian Mannarino at 77¢ before the market moved to 88¢.
- This wallet has traded 190 related events with a 99% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
$1,927 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 99%
99% sharp buying favorite
Elite 99% win-rate wallet with large lifetime profit bought Adrian Mannarino before a sharp move from 76–77¢ to 88¢ amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor has won 723 of 730 resolved bets and is up $420K lifetime.
- They bought $3.9K of Adrian Mannarino at 76–77¢ before the market moved to 88¢.
- Market volume spiked 47.5x above normal, supporting the move.
$3,927 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 99%
99% win-rate sharp bettor
Elite 99% win-rate wallet bought Mannarino before a major price move, with serial cross-market success and strong market momentum corroborating the trade.
- This bettor wins 99% of resolved trades and is up $420K lifetime.
- They bought Adrian Mannarino at 77¢ before the market moved to 88¢.
- This wallet has traded 190 related events with a 99% win rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
$2,000 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 99%
Sharp contrarian cluster
Three wallets, including an 11-0 profitable bettor, took the Mensik side against a major market move, creating a notable contrarian sports signal despite the price moving sharply against them afterward.
- A bettor who is 11-0 on resolved trades and up $23.6K backed Mensik at 60¢.
- Three wallets put $5.7K on the same Mensik side while the market saw a major price swing.
- Current odds are far below their entries, so this is a high-risk contrarian follow rather than momentum.
$5,737 on Jakub Mensik
Profitable serial trader
Profitable high-volume trader bought Mannarino before a sharp 35-point move, alongside a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,477 resolved bets, 69% winners, and $28K lifetime profit.
- Their $6.8K buy on Mannarino came before the price jumped from 77¢ to 88¢.
- Market volume spiked 16.9x, suggesting broader momentum behind the same side.
$6,800 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial trader flip
A profitable serial sports trader flipped into Adrian Mannarino amid a large volume spike and a 35-point market move in his favor.
- This bettor has traded 197 resolved markets with a 62% win rate and $32K lifetime profit.
- They flipped from Mensik into Mannarino as the market surged, entering at 84¢ before the price moved to 88¢.
- Volume is running 16.9x above normal, suggesting this move is being driven by fresh information or strong momentum.
$2,526 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 62%
Momentum buyer on big move
Surfaced for the sharp market move and volume surge toward Mannarino, though the bettor’s long-term record is not strong.
- Mannarino’s odds jumped about 35 percentage points, and this bettor bought into the move at 85¢.
- Market volume spiked 16.9x above its normal pace, suggesting broader money is chasing the same side.
- The wallet is a very active cross-market trader, but its lifetime P&L is negative, so this is more of a momentum signal than a proven sharp bettor.
$1,101 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 56%
Undefeated sharp bettor
Sharp-wallet override: an undefeated 11-0 bettor with strong profit bought Jakub Mensik at 60¢ despite otherwise modest signals.
- This bettor is 11-0 on resolved bets and up $23.6K lifetime.
- They bought Jakub Mensik at 60¢, and the market has already moved to 66¢.
- Entry at 60¢ implies they saw value in Mensik before the price rebound.
$1,720 on Jakub Mensik | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable sports whale plus cluster
Highly profitable, high-volume sports trader bought Mannarino before a large odds move, with coordinated same-side flow and a major pre-event volume spike supporting the signal.
- This bettor has a huge track record: 65% wins across 15,624 resolved bets and +$15.8M lifetime profit.
- They bought Adrian Mannarino at 33¢ before the market moved to 52¢, showing strong timing on this match.
- Four wallets are betting the same way, with $8.2K total on Mannarino and a 112x volume spike before the event.
$1,125 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 65%
Elite sports sharp buying dip
Proven high-volume sharp wallet with 80% win rate and $4.24M profit bought Adrian Mannarino after a sharp price move.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $4.24M lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market sports trader, with $5.0M across 332 events.
- Entry at 44¢ has already moved to 46¢, suggesting early confirmation after the buy.
$3,136 on Adrian Mannarino | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x14b2...e055 — Outcome 83690886, $8,407 (100% win rate)
- 0x0599...3c6a — Outcome 83690886, $7,445 (79% win rate)
- 0x160b...4296 — Outcome 83690886, $5,218 (76% win rate)
- 0x13b8...d1af — Outcome 83690886, $5,000 (67% win rate)
- 0xeaf3...e802 — Outcome 83690886, $4,745 (86% win rate)
- 0xa5eb...93bf — Outcome 83690886, $3,526 (70% win rate)
- 0x6340...e272 — Outcome 83690886, $2,354 (83% win rate)
- 0x5f07...9d0f — Outcome 83690886, $2,300 (64% win rate)
- 0x9ec2...bd08 — Outcome 32825380, $2,250
- 0x1137...cbff — Outcome 83690886, $2,000
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