Part of: Genius FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

This Polymarket asks whether an official Genius token will have a fully diluted valuation above $200 million one day after launch. It resolves to Yes if the token is publicly tradable and its total supply multiplied by price exceeds $200 million at that one-day mark; otherwise it resolves to No. The market is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028, and current smart money activity is modest but includes recent whale buying on the Yes side.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,936.

Categories: Crypto, genius, fdv, Pre-Market

Notable Trades

3-wallet breakout buyers

Three wallets piled into Yes as this market broke far above its prior range, including a brand-new wallet sizing aggressively into a fast move.

  • Three wallets bought the same side for $6.3k as Yes jumped from its old 40-59¢ range to 91¢
  • One wallet was only 9 minutes old and already put in $4.1k across repeated buys
  • This market is moving fast, up 47.8% in a day, and the coordinated flow helped push price higher

$6,311 on Yes

New whale early on Yes

A brand-new wallet deployed $6.7k across two buys on the same crypto launch market at 29-43¢, and the price has already moved up to 49%, suggesting early conviction from a fresh bettor.

  • A wallet just 11 minutes old put $6.7k into this market across two buys
  • They bought Yes at 29¢ and 43¢, and the market is already up to 49%
  • The bet size is meaningful versus roughly $10.9k of liquidity, so this was a real conviction entry

$6,655 on Yes

New whale pressing thesis

A 4-hour-old wallet has already made multiple sizable bets across this event, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine flow.

  • This 4-hour-old wallet has already been flagged 3 times with about $6.3k in bets, which is unusual for a brand-new account
  • The bettor is buying Yes around 40¢ while the market sits near 37¢, showing conviction even after already sizing into this event
  • The market is reasonably active but not huge, so a roughly $2k buy is still meaningful relative to recent volume

$1,970 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x05fd...50c9 Outcome 40644945, $5,000 (48% win rate)
  2. 0x8da2...ab27 Outcome 40644945, $4,000
  3. 0x7a61...af24 Outcome 40644945, $3,376
  4. 0x7cea...cc13 Outcome 40644945, $2,333 (23% win rate)
  5. 0x9b85...cd3a Outcome 40644945, $2,062
  6. 0x62f5...453f Outcome 40644945, $2,000
  7. 0x4bb4...a353 Outcome 87861360, $1,089
  8. 0xa948...f202 Outcome 40644945, $1,078
  9. 0xda57...e628 Outcome 40644945, $1,002
  10. 0xc127...ee33 Outcome 40644945, $1,000

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

589dGenius FDV above ___ one day after launch?$14,936 tracked3 signalsCryptogeniusfdvPre-Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Genius's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Genius will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Genius (https://x.com/GeniusTerminal) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Notable Trades

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

37d ago

$6,311 on Yes at 87¢

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

43d ago

$6,655 on Yes at 37¢

Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?

45d ago

$1,970 on Yes at 40¢

Related Theses