Part of: Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture any territory of Dobropillia, Ukraine, as shown on the ISW map, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter is tracking $1,400 in smart money on this market, with one recent signal: a proven winner buying NO.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,400.
Categories: Ukraine Map, Ukraine, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Proven winner buys NO
Sharp wallet override: a profitable 76% lifetime bettor bought No in a thin market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $22,274 lifetime.
- The $1,400 No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to about 39% of its 24h volume.
- Entry at 57¢ has already moved to 61¢, suggesting the market is following their side.
$1,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x165e...f5aa — No, $1,771 (76% win rate)
- 0x05dd...305c — Yes, $494
- 0xb26c...0eb0 — Yes, $431 (60% win rate)
- 0xc93c...52f1 — Yes, $416 (51% win rate)
- 0x703d...80f6 — No, $229
- 0xcf9e...518e — No, $206 (82% win rate)
- 0xe25e...3f31 — No, $205
- 0x8190...b247 — Yes, $200 (87% win rate)
- 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $180 (69% win rate)
- 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $160
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