What does the 2026 hottest year prediction market measure?

The market measures 2026's rank among all years with data in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Rank 1 represents the hottest year.

When will the 2026 hottest year market resolve?

The market resolves as soon as the specified Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data becomes available, with December 31, 2026 listed as the resolution date.

What happens if 2026 ties another year?

If 2026 ties another year, the market resolves according to the position occupied by the year it ties.

How can I check the Polymarket odds for 2026 being the hottest year?

Visit the market page to see the live Yes and No prices, which represent the market-implied probabilities of 2026 ranking first for global temperature.

What smart money activity is being tracked in this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $5,298 in smart money activity across one signal, including wallets buying both Yes and No positions.

Part of: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

This prediction market asks whether 2026 will rank as the hottest year on record in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. It resolves when the relevant temperature data becomes available, with a scheduled date of December 31, 2026; smart money tracking currently shows $5,298 across one signal.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,926.

Categories: Science, Culture, Global Temp, Weather, Climate & Science, Weather & Science

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market bettor with a profitable 204-bet history is adding to a large Yes position as thin-volume buying pushes the market to a new price range.

This bettor has won 71% of 204 resolved trades and is up nearly $52,000 lifetime.
They already invested $40,947 in Yes at an average of 37¢, then added another $1,557 at 72¢.
The purchase accounted for over 900% of 24-hour volume and helped push Yes 30.75% beyond its prior historical range.

$5,298 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market bettor with a profitable 204-bet history is adding to a large Yes position as thin-volume buying pushes the market to a new price range.

This bettor has won 71% of 204 resolved trades and is up nearly $52,000 lifetime.
They already invested $40,947 in Yes at an average of 37¢, then added another $1,557 at 72¢.
The purchase accounted for over 900% of 24-hour volume and helped push Yes 30.75% beyond its prior historical range.

$2,218 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market bettor with a profitable 204-bet history is adding to a large Yes position as thin-volume buying pushes the market to a new price range.

This bettor has won 71% of 204 resolved trades and is up nearly $52,000 lifetime.
They already invested $40,947 in Yes at an average of 37¢, then added another $1,557 at 72¢.
The purchase accounted for over 900% of 24-hour volume and helped push Yes 30.75% beyond its prior historical range.

$1,291 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable bettor scaling into Yes

A serial cross-market bettor with a profitable 204-bet history is adding to a large Yes position as thin-volume buying pushes the market to a new price range.

This bettor has won 71% of 204 resolved trades and is up nearly $52,000 lifetime.
They already invested $40,947 in Yes at an average of 37¢, then added another $1,557 at 72¢.
The purchase accounted for over 900% of 24-hour volume and helped push Yes 30.75% beyond its prior historical range.

$1,557 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Seven-wallet cluster scaling into No

Seven repeatedly linked wallets are building a No position, with this bettor adding to an existing $6,528 stake despite only moderate individual edge.

Seven wallets sharing one funder have repeatedly positioned on No, signaling coordinated conviction.
This bettor is adding $1,500 to an existing $6,528 No position rather than making a one-off trade.
The wallet has resolved 621 bets with a 71% win rate and is up $41,357 lifetime.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Seven-wallet cluster scaling into No

Seven repeatedly linked wallets are building a No position, with this bettor adding to an existing $6,528 stake despite only moderate individual edge.

Seven wallets sharing one funder have repeatedly positioned on No, signaling coordinated conviction.
This bettor is adding $1,500 to an existing $6,528 No position rather than making a one-off trade.
The wallet has resolved 621 bets with a 71% win rate and is up $41,357 lifetime.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Seven-wallet cluster scaling into No

Seven repeatedly linked wallets are building a No position, with this bettor adding to an existing $6,528 stake despite only moderate individual edge.

Seven wallets sharing one funder have repeatedly positioned on No, signaling coordinated conviction.
This bettor is adding $1,500 to an existing $6,528 No position rather than making a one-off trade.
The wallet has resolved 621 bets with a 71% win rate and is up $41,357 lifetime.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $3,112 Yes bet in a relatively thin market.

This bettor wins 83% of 167 resolved trades and is up $1.07 million.
They bought $3,112 of Yes at 38% in a market with only $3,859 of liquidity.
The wallet has traded across 44 events and 59 markets, suggesting broad and repeatable expertise rather than a one-off bet.

$3,909 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sharp bettor buys Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 83% win rate and substantial edge placed a fresh $3,112 Yes bet in a relatively thin market.

This bettor wins 83% of 167 resolved trades and is up $1.07 million.
They bought $3,112 of Yes at 38% in a market with only $3,859 of liquidity.
The wallet has traded across 44 events and 59 markets, suggesting broad and repeatable expertise rather than a one-off bet.

$3,112 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable new wallet buying Yes

A 2-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early $65k profit just put $9.2k into Yes on a climate market, including fresh size at 34¢ in a trade bigger than the market’s prior 24h volume.

This 2-day-old wallet has already been flagged 13 times and is up about $65k despite being brand new.
They just bought $9.2k of Yes, with the main fill at 34¢ after also buying earlier at 50¢, showing conviction while the market now prices this at only 34%.
This order was about 194% of the market’s earlier 24-hour volume, so the bettor was willing to push size into a relatively quiet market.

$9,242 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — No, $142,168
0x1186...051b — Yes, $44,243 (71% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $42,969 (82% win rate)
0xf063...7893 — Yes, $34,770
0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $15,878 (75% win rate)
0x94c4...43ca — Yes, $14,507 (76% win rate)
0x3069...f8ef — No, $13,936 (72% win rate)
0x7de7...a9c8 — No, $9,436 (57% win rate)
0x8dcf...5668 — No, $9,389
0x0ced...12b2 — Yes, $7,206

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

110dWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?$31,926 tracked10 signalsScienceCultureGlobal TempWeatherClimate & ScienceWeather & Science

Yes

76¢

24¢

Yes

76¢

24¢

Price History — “Yes”

81¢

75¢

70¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction