What has to happen for this WTI $115 market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if any 1-minute candle for the active month of WTI crude oil futures shows a final High price of $115 or higher at any point between market creation and the final trading day in April 2026.

What does 'active month' mean for WTI futures in this market?

The active month is the nearest listed WTI crude oil futures contract month. Under the market rules, that active contract rolls at 6:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days before the contract's last trading day.

Does WTI need to close above $115 for this market to resolve Yes?

No. WTI does not need to close above $115. The market only requires that a 1-minute candle records a High at or above $115, even if the price later falls back below that level.

When does this Polymarket resolve?

The market is set to resolve by April 30, 2026, based on whether the price condition is met during the allowed observation period in April 2026.

Why are traders watching this WTI oil prediction market?

Traders use this market to gauge the probability of a major upside move in crude oil, often driven by supply shocks, OPEC decisions, geopolitical risk, or stronger-than-expected demand. It can serve as a quick read on market sentiment around whether oil prices could spike to $115 in April.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?

This Polymarket asks whether the active month of WTI crude oil futures will print a 1-minute candle high of at least $115 at any time before the end of April 2026. It resolves Yes if the contract’s recorded high reaches or exceeds $115 during the market window, and No otherwise. The market is scheduled to resolve by April 30, 2026, and current page data also highlights limited but notable smart money activity from oil-focused bettors.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the final trading day during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For WTI futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month. For WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, the last trading day is defined as three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day), consistent with CME contract specifications. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,708.

Categories: Finance, Monthly, Hit Price, Finance Updown, Commodities, Oil

Notable Trades

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader is making a cross-market thesis bet against an outlier WTI spike, with a strong history across 54 related markets.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $418k lifetime
They have traded 54 related markets across 29 events, which points to a repeatable macro strategy rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 87¢, meaning they see a move to $115 WTI in April as very unlikely despite this market already dropping 40.5% in a week

$2,584 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

91% win-rate oil bettor

A proven sharp bettor with a 91% win rate is making a cross-market oil thesis bet by buying No at 85¢ in this April WTI strike market.

This bettor wins 91% of their trades across 1,001 resolved markets and is up about $397k.
They have a 4-market position on the same oil event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
They bought the high-probability side at 85¢, backing No while the market still prices a 14% chance of a spike above $115.

$1,449 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

88% win-rate oil trader

A high-performing trader with an 88% win rate is betting across four related oil price markets and just bought No at 82¢ in this one, suggesting a deliberate cross-market view rather than a one-off trade.

This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $398k across 171 resolved bets.
They have put $22.4k across 4 related oil markets, which points to a broader event thesis instead of a single punt.
They bought No at 82¢ while No now trades at 84¢, showing the market has moved slightly in their favor.

$1,628 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

93% win-rate oil bettor

A highly accurate bettor with a 93% win rate is making a fresh $3.4k bet on No in a reasonably liquid oil market, with related positioning across the same event.

This bettor wins 93% of their resolved trades and is up about $2.3k overall.
They bought No at 82¢ with a $3.4k position, showing clear conviction in a market priced at just 18% Yes.
They also traded a second related oil target market, suggesting a broader event view rather than a one-off bet.

$3,355 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

88% win-rate oil bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is making a broader multi-market oil thesis bet, buying No at 71¢ in a liquid market after a sharp 1-day move.

This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $395k across 165 resolved markets
They have put nearly $22.9k across 4 related oil markets, which points to a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet
They bought No at 71¢ after this market moved 16 points in a day, signaling confidence even after a big repricing

$2,105 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

88% win-rate oil bettor

A highly profitable wallet with an 88% win rate is building a multi-market oil thesis and just bought No at 67¢ after a sharp 28-point drop in this contract.

This bettor wins 88% of their trades and is up about $395k across 165 resolved markets.
They have put $22.4k across 4 related oil markets, which points to a broader event view rather than a one-off bet.
They bought after this market dropped 28 points in a day, taking No at 67¢ while the market is still liquid and tight.

$1,587 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%