Cross-Market Thesis

“Calendar arbitrage on talks”

This trader is expressing a view that US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?, US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?, US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?, and 13 more are correlated outcomes, committing $31,491 to this thesis across 16 prediction markets on Polymarket.

S
Sharp_0xfc2f479% win rate

Total

$31,491

Markets

16

Positions

  1. 1US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
    $4,745 @ 79¢
  2. 2US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
    $1,749 @ 35¢
  3. 3US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
    $1,319 @ 44¢
  4. 4US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
    $1,071 @ 54¢
  5. 5US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
    $3,274 @ 82¢
  6. 6US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
    $2,640 @ 88¢
  7. 7US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
    $1,560 @ 78¢
  8. 8US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
    $1,825 @ 73¢
  9. 9US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
    $1,650 @ 33¢
  10. 10US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
    $1,277 @ 42¢
  11. 11US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
    $1,129 @ 38¢
  12. 12US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
    $1,200 @ 20¢
  13. 13US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
    $1,400 @ 70¢
  14. 14US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
    $1,320 @ 33¢
  15. 15US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
    $2,850 @ 57¢
  16. 16US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
    $2,483 @ 28¢
Calendar arbitrage on talks — Cross-Market Analysis | PolySpotter