Part of: Best AI model on June 13?
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether claude-opus-4-6-thinking will be the highest-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard, with style control off, when checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 13, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,700 in smart money and 1 smart money signal on this AI model market, including activity from a historically profitable 78% bettor.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,700.
Notable Trades
Profitable 78% bettor
Despite a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a strong 335-bet track record and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25.5K lifetime.
- They bought $1.7K of Yes at 79¢ on a market that has moved up 35.8 points in the last day.
- The market is still relatively small, so this is a meaningful conviction bet versus $6.1K liquidity.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $17,040
- 0xb89f...1c44 — Yes, $3,808 (47% win rate)
- 0x75a2...6992 — No, $3,368
- 0x5999...ae94 — Yes, $2,139 (78% win rate)
- 0xe617...f251 — Yes, $1,983 (95% win rate)
- 0x652b...f5c2 — Yes, $1,853
- 0x564f...7026 — Yes, $1,200
- 0xf2aa...21fb — Yes, $1,012 (43% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $994 (45% win rate)
- 0x681b...8a5a — No, $885
Related Theses
Anthropic overtakes Google AI
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Neither Google nor Anthropic leads
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Claude debuts in low 1530s
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