What is the May 2026 3rd hottest on record prediction market about?

This market predicts whether May 2026 will rank as the third-hottest May ever recorded in NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data.

How will this Polymarket resolve?

The market will resolve using the NASA GISS table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius,” specifically the value listed under the May column for 2026 compared with all other Mays on record.

Does a tie count for this market?

Yes. If May 2026 is tied for third hottest with another year, it qualifies as third under the market rules. Ties for other ranks are treated according to the bracket they tie with.

When does the May 2026 temperature market resolve?

The listed resolution date is June 10, 2026, after NASA’s relevant May 2026 global temperature data is expected to be available.

What does the recent smart money signal say?

PolySpotter currently shows $1,940 in tracked smart money for this market, with one recent alert indicating an 81% winner buying NO.

Part of: 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

This prediction market asks whether May 2026 will be the third-hottest May on record according to NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. Live Polymarket odds reflect trader expectations, while PolySpotter currently tracks $1,940 in smart money and one recent signal: an 81% winner buying NO. The market is scheduled to resolve on June 10, 2026, based on the May column in NASA’s global temperature index table.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,940.

Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science

Notable Trades

81% winner buying NO

A highly proven wallet with an 81% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No in a relatively thin market while also positioning across related markets.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $38,489 lifetime.
They put $1,940 on No in a thin market with only $6,722 of liquidity.
The wallet is also active across 2 related climate markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$1,940 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%