Part of: S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $20,787.

Categories: Up or Down, Daily, Indicies, SPX, Finance, Daily-Close, Rewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

Notable Trades

Profitable serial timer buys late

Profitable serial near-resolution trader bought $10.2k of Up into a major volume spike about 40 minutes before SPX market resolution.

  • This near-close trader is up $134k lifetime across 2,465 resolved bets.
  • They bought $10.2k of Up about 40 minutes before resolution, paying 81–84¢.
  • Market activity is 53x normal and Up has already moved +28 points today.

$10,179 on Up | Wallet win rate: 50%

93% serial trader exits Up

Surfaced due to a serial cross-market trader with a 93% resolved win rate selling Up near resolution, though the prior Up position suggests this may be position management rather than a clean new short.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 269 resolved markets across 142 events, making the wallet worth tracking despite modest lifetime losses.
  • They sold Up 42 minutes before resolution after the market jumped nearly 30 points today.
  • This looks partly like closing an existing Up position, so the copy signal is weaker than a fresh bet.

$2,460 on Down | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial timer

Serial near-resolution trader with large lifetime profit is adding a $6.3k Up bet 43 minutes before SPX close amid a major volume and price spike.

  • This bettor is up $142,821 lifetime and has a pattern of betting close to resolution across multiple markets.
  • They bought $6,266 of Up about 43 minutes before the SPX market closes.
  • The market has seen a 16x volume spike and Up has moved nearly 30 percentage points in the last day.

$6,265 on Up | Wallet win rate: 50%

6-wallet funded cluster

A known 6-wallet funded cluster is backing Up, but this specific wallet has only a modest 53% win rate and the bet is small relative to market volume.

  • Six wallets from the same funder are active on this side, a coordinated-flow signal that has appeared in prior runs.
  • This wallet is profitable overall, up $6.3K on $136.7K invested across 503 resolved bets.
  • The cluster bought Up around 73¢ after an 8.5-point daily move, suggesting continued momentum positioning.

$1,883 on Up | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0xf5bc...2c49 Outcome 34219957, $22,480 (42% win rate)
  2. 0x66dc...adc8 Outcome 34219957, $10,000
  3. 0x7ba5...b5b8 Outcome 34219957, $1,290
  4. 0x27a2...c4de Outcome 34219957, $566
  5. 0x11a4...8b06 Outcome 34219957, $528
  6. 0x8c1b...63dd Outcome 34219957, $469 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x648c...09c6 Outcome 34219957, $448
  8. 0xdd4b...5889 Outcome 34219957, $375
  9. 0x1186...051b Outcome 34219957, $267 (64% win rate)
  10. 0x2f63...f247 Outcome 34219957, $216 (84% win rate)

Related Theses

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NVIDIA reaches 240 not 248

Covers 5 related markets

S&P 500 falls May 11

Covers 1 related market

Palantir rallies to $150

Covers 4 related markets

Apple peaks below 304

Covers 2 related markets

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

ResolvedS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?$20,787 tracked4 signalsUp or DownDailyIndiciesSPXFinanceHide From NewDaily-CloseRewards Automation 500, 4.5, 50

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Price History — “Up
94¢
66¢
38¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

9d ago

$10,179 on Up at 83¢

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

9d ago

$2,460 on Down at 20¢

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

9d ago

$6,265 on Up at 84¢

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?

9d ago

$1,883 on Up at 73¢

Related Theses