Part of: US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
This US Open WTA prediction market covers whether Aryna Sabalenka or Jessica Pegula advances in their scheduled September 10, 2026 match. The market tracks smart-money activity, including recent bets on both players, and resolves to the advancing player; cancellation or no determined winner by the deadline results in the stated fallback resolution.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $86,620.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
Serial trader buys Pegula amid volume spike
A highly experienced serial trader bought Pegula during a 50x volume spike, though the wallet's historical record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This wallet has traded 3,903 markets with a $6.7 million lifetime profit and 70% win rate.
- The $1,059 Pegula purchase came during a 50.5x historical volume spike, with the price already moving from 36¢ to 38¢.
- The wallet bought Pegula at 36¢, implying roughly a 2.8x return if she advances.
$2,704 on Jessica Pegula | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial trader buys Pegula amid volume spike
A highly experienced serial trader bought Pegula during a 50x volume spike, though the wallet's historical record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This wallet has traded 3,903 markets with a $6.7 million lifetime profit and 70% win rate.
- The $1,059 Pegula purchase came during a 50.5x historical volume spike, with the price already moving from 36¢ to 38¢.
- The wallet bought Pegula at 36¢, implying roughly a 2.8x return if she advances.
$1,487 on Jessica Pegula | Wallet win rate: 70%
Proven bettor scaling into Sabalenka
A proven bettor with 455 resolved trades is adding to an existing Sabalenka position amid a major volume surge and 19-point price move.
- This bettor has won 80% of 455 resolved trades and is up $20,041 overall.
- They are adding to an existing Sabalenka position after a 42x volume surge and 19-point price jump.
- The new entry is 83¢, implying the bettor still sees value despite Sabalenka already being an 82% favorite.
$1,079 on Aryna Sabalenka | Wallet win rate: 80%
93% win-rate bettor backs Sabalenka
A highly profitable bettor with a 93% win rate and 2,637 resolved positions bought Sabalenka amid a major volume spike and rapid price move.
- This bettor wins 93% of 2,637 resolved positions and is up $2.27 million.
- The $1,000 Sabalenka purchase coincided with a 50.5x volume spike and a 19-point rapid price move.
- The 64¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful value despite current odds near 62¢.
$1,000 on Aryna Sabalenka | Wallet win rate: 93%
Serial trader buys Pegula amid volume spike
A highly experienced serial trader bought Pegula during a 50x volume spike, though the wallet's historical record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This wallet has traded 3,903 markets with a $6.7 million lifetime profit and 70% win rate.
- The $1,059 Pegula purchase came during a 50.5x historical volume spike, with the price already moving from 36¢ to 38¢.
- The wallet bought Pegula at 36¢, implying roughly a 2.8x return if she advances.
$1,059 on Jessica Pegula | Wallet win rate: 70%
Four-wallet Pegula buying surge
Four wallets deployed $62K on Pegula amid a 117x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated contrarian position despite weak track records and substantial existing exposure.
- Four wallets bought $62,336 on Jessica Pegula while the market priced her at just 36–37%.
- Trading volume reached 117 times its historical average, suggesting unusually concentrated interest in this matchup.
- Most wallets were adding to large existing Pegula positions, but their historical results are mixed and do not establish a proven edge.
$62,336 on Jessica Pegula
Serial sharp backs Pegula underdog
A highly experienced serial trader with a 71% win rate backed Jessica Pegula amid a 68.7x pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has won 71% of 458 resolved trades and is up $290,229.
- The $1,800 Pegula purchase came during a 68.7x surge over the market’s historical trading volume.
- Entry at 37¢ implies the trader sees meaningful value on the 36% current underdog.
$1,800 on Jessica Pegula | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor scaling into Sabalenka
A highly profitable tennis bettor with an 85% win rate and substantial edge is adding $5,000 to an existing Sabalenka position.
- This bettor has won 85% of 702 resolved trades and is up $416,167.
- They are adding $5,000 to an existing Sabalenka position rather than making a one-off bet.
- The 64¢ entry implies the bettor sees meaningful value despite Sabalenka already being favored.
$5,000 on Aryna Sabalenka | Wallet win rate: 85%
94% win-rate bettor adds to Sabalenka
A highly profitable serial trader with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing Sabalenka position at 64 cents.
- This bettor has won 94% of 197 resolved trades and is up $230,532.
- They are adding to an existing $3,741 Sabalenka position rather than taking a routine profit.
- The 64¢ entry is below the bettor’s 69¢ average winning price, despite Sabalenka already being favored at 64%.
$2,386 on Aryna Sabalenka | Wallet win rate: 94%
94% win-rate bettor backs Pegula
A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial edge bought $7,770 of Jessica Pegula at 37¢.
- This bettor has won 94% of 293 resolved trades and is up $3.4 million.
- They bought $7,770 of Jessica Pegula at 37¢ despite the market pricing her near 36%.
- The wallet has traded across 461 markets, indicating an unusually deep and consistent track record.
$7,770 on Jessica Pegula | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x0e60...3bad — Outcome 11358865, $234,620 (33% win rate)
- 0x464f...01b7 — Outcome 11358865, $28,090
- 0x79ae...9a4a — Outcome 11358865, $21,000 (94% win rate)
- 0xe394...289c — Outcome 11358865, $18,000 (85% win rate)
- 0x5c50...e0c9 — Outcome 11358865, $16,000 (26% win rate)
- 0x3f98...0aa1 — Outcome 11358865, $9,904 (82% win rate)
- 0x6db5...e279 — Outcome 24838578, $9,559 (53% win rate)
- 0x33bc...37dc — Outcome 11358865, $8,333 (62% win rate)
- 0x2ca1...ddcd — Outcome 11358865, $7,500 (43% win rate)
- 0xe787...5034 — Outcome 11358865, $7,338 (51% win rate)
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