Part of: Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)
This prediction market covers the set handicap for Iga Swiatek vs Naomi Osaka at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, scheduled for May 11, 2026. It resolves to Swiatek if she wins by 2 or more sets; otherwise it resolves to Osaka, with final resolution expected by May 18, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,200 in smart money across 1 signal, including alerts from profitable tennis and sports bettors backing the favorite.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,623.
Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games
Notable Trades
80% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp tennis bettor with an 80% long-run win rate and strong positive P&L is buying Osaka +1.5 sets at roughly even odds.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $223k lifetime.
- They have traded across 33 related sports events with the same 80% win rate.
- Entry at 50¢ means they are backing Osaka +1.5 sets as a near-even-money edge.
$1,200 on Osaka | Wallet win rate: 80%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with a long serial cross-market history is buying Swiatek -1.5 at near coin-flip odds, though the bet size is modest.
- This bettor has 1,116 resolved trades, wins 63%, and is up $317k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 32 events with $673k in flagged activity.
- Entry at 51¢ suggests they see value in Swiatek covering a market priced almost evenly.
$1,335 on Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 63%
92% winner backs favorite
Elite 92% lifetime winner with strong cross-market history bought Swiatek -1.5 at 51¢ in a relatively small tennis market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved positions and is up $141K lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market record: 74 events and $228K traded with the same 92% hit rate.
- Entry at 51¢ suggests they see Swiatek -1.5 as materially better than a coin flip.
$1,459 on Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 92%
Profitable serial sports trader
A highly active cross-market trader with 1,116 resolved bets and $317k lifetime profit bought Swiatek -1.5 at even odds on a moderately quiet tennis market.
- This bettor has a long track record: 63% wins across 1,116 resolved trades and $317k lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $672k recently spread across 31 events and 39 markets.
- Entry at 50¢ is an even-money bet on Swiatek winning by 2+ sets.
$1,124 on Swiatek | Wallet win rate: 63%
Proven tennis bettor
Despite the weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the bettor has a long profitable record with 76% wins across 997 resolved markets.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $58.8K lifetime.
- They put $1.5K on Osaka +1.5 sets at 50¢ in a relatively small market.
- Entry at 50¢ implies they see Osaka covering as better than a coin flip.
$1,505 on Osaka | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xb57a...b8c3 — Outcome 56942443, $13,660 (76% win rate)
- 0xa4f9...9419 — Outcome 56942443, $4,131 (42% win rate)
- 0xae30...079e — Outcome 56942443, $2,402 (80% win rate)
- 0xff81...44c9 — Outcome 56942443, $1,335 (48% win rate)
- 0x6f3c...786d — Outcome 56942443, $969 (100% win rate)
- 0x8816...7738 — Outcome 56942443, $461 (93% win rate)
- 0xb002...103d — Outcome 56942443, $300
- 0x2ca6...6a20 — Outcome 56942443, $204
- 0x9271...a28a — Outcome 56942443, $168
- 0x47f6...b051 — Outcome 56942443, $100
