Part of: Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Russia will capture any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026, based on the ISW map. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,000 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent alert from a 79% winner on a thin market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

79% winner on thin market

Sharp 79% winner made a $2k No bet on a thin war-territory market, backed by cross-market positioning and meaningful size versus 24h volume.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved bets and is profitable across 24 outcomes.
  • The $2,000 No buy was 3.6x the market’s 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
  • They have also positioned across related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0x270e...53ca No, $3,323 (79% win rate)
  2. 0x5d91...3578 Yes, $1,786 (49% win rate)
  3. 0x645a...fd84 No, $1,727 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x0f4f...7039 Yes, $1,070
  5. 0xc7d0...1f8a Yes, $1,022
  6. 0xe8c4...395d Yes, $627 (96% win rate)
  7. 0x5d0f...e413 No, $595
  8. 0xc5a3...883a No, $518 (51% win rate)
  9. 0x98d1...ed25 Yes, $493
  10. 0x167a...91d5 Yes, $446 (62% win rate)

Related Theses

Russia won't enter Novooleksandrivka

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

15dWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by...?$2,000 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Yes
43¢
No
57¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No
61¢
47¢
33¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

4h ago

$2,000 on No at 61¢

61¢57¢4¢

Related Theses