Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

This Polymarket tracks whether the first set between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at the 2026 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters will have over or under 8.5 total games. The market resolves to Over if at least 9 games are played in the opening set, with any first-set tiebreak counting as one game. It is scheduled to resolve by April 19, 2026, and is useful for following live prediction market odds on a marquee tennis matchup.

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 12 2026. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,154.

Categories: Tennis, Sports, Games

Notable Trades

91% win-rate sports sharp

A proven sharp bettor with a 91% win rate and $1.9M profit bought Over in a relatively thin tennis market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up $1.9M lifetime.
  • They've traded 170 markets across 131 events, so this looks like a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
  • The buy was $2.15k in a market with just $5.2k of 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin book.

$2,154 on Over | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0x56c9...0d9e Over, $7,063 (91% win rate)
  2. 0x507e...beae Under, $3,217 (50% win rate)
  3. 0x0e1b...ecaf Under, $1,657 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x9c76...c926 Under, $1,500
  5. 0x5e30...acbf Under, $1,250 (69% win rate)
  6. 0xc4db...7e0c Under, $887
  7. 0x2d3d...7a79 Over, $730
  8. 0x3349...c0b8 Over, $659 (83% win rate)
  9. 0x0d96...f714 Over, $420
  10. 0xbfd7...f0bf Under, $295

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

6d$2,154 tracked1 signalTennisSportsGames
Over
100¢
Under
0¢

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 12 2026. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Price History — “Over
102¢
89¢
76¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

2h ago

$2,154 on Over at 81¢

81¢100¢19¢

Related Theses

Alcaraz vs Sinner Set 1 Games Odds | Polymarket | PolySpotter