Part of: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether a California ballot proposition containing a one-time wealth tax on billionaires passes in the November 3, 2026 general election. Smart money activity currently shows a bullish signal, with an 81% winner buying Yes, and $1,500 in smart money tracked for this market. The market resolves based on whether voters approve a qualifying tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,500.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Taxes, referendum, referendums midterms
Notable Trades
81% winner buying Yes
Proven profitable wallet with an 81% win rate across 1,206 resolved positions bought Yes on this 2026 California wealth-tax market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $666k lifetime.
- Their average winning entry is 43¢, and they bought this Yes at 39¢.
- The market is quiet today with only $2.2k in 24h volume, so a $1.5k buy is meaningful flow.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0x0405...da82 — Yes, $374,097
- 0xee0f...4cf5 — Yes, $365,599
- 0x7744...999e — No, $242,074 (52% win rate)
- 0x811b...7006 — Yes, $101,869
- 0xde7b...5f4b — No, $98,137 (81% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — No, $58,243 (47% win rate)
- 0x7c87...9bd4 — No, $43,073 (76% win rate)
- 0x095d...52cf — No, $39,563
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — No, $33,348 (58% win rate)
- 0xdabe...bd89 — Yes, $30,346
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