Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will finish the 15-minute window from April 24, 4:00AM to 4:15AM ET up or down. Traders use this market to speculate on very short-term BTC price movement, with resolution based on Bitcoin’s direction at the end of that interval. PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,000 in smart money activity across 1 signal tied to this market.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $7,593.

Categories: Up or Down, Recurring, Crypto, Bitcoin, 15M, Crypto Prices

Notable Trades

98% win-rate timer

A tiny but notable buy from an exceptionally strong short-term bettor who wins 98% of resolved bets and bought after a sharp intraminute move.

  • This bettor wins 98% of their trades with 259 wins in 263 resolved positions
  • They bought at 70¢ after the market moved 17 points in under 4 minutes, suggesting confidence in the rebound
  • The bet size is small at $1,000, but the track record is strong enough to make it worth watching

$1,000 on Up | Wallet win rate: 98%

Serial timer leads 4-wallet cluster

A 4-wallet cluster bought Up minutes before expiry, led by a serial near-resolution bettor with a 98% win rate and strong lifetime edge, making this a copy-worthy short-term signal despite the small absolute size.

  • One wallet wins 98% of its bets and is up nearly $20k, with a strong habit of betting in the final minutes.
  • Four wallets all bought Up within about 13 minutes of resolution, totaling $5.2k in the same direction.
  • They entered around 59-70¢ just after a sharp price swing, suggesting confidence in a late mispricing.

$5,245 on Up

Profitable serial timer

A highly active profitable serial timer with $113k lifetime profit bought Down 10 minutes before resolution, a repeat pattern that has shown a real edge.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 1,226 resolved bets and is up $113k lifetime
  • They often bet in the final minutes, with 5 near-resolution bets across 5 markets
  • They bought Down at 81¢ about 10 minutes before expiry, showing clear short-term conviction

$1,348 on Down | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xd2ac...e5fe Outcome 97521552, $2,154
  2. 0x1e50...2473 Outcome 97521552, $1,698
  3. 0xbb15...5790 Outcome 97521552, $705
  4. 0x139b...7c60 Outcome 97521552, $518
  5. 0x7024...4c4c Outcome 97521552, $495
  6. 0x66e7...8bcd Outcome 97521552, $468
  7. 0x4e58...8ea3 Outcome 97521552, $298
  8. 0x9b9c...5c06 Outcome 97521552, $280
  9. 0xd7e7...a357 Outcome 97521552, $280
  10. 0x7f66...4bac Outcome 28229907, $200

Related Theses

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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

$7,593 tracked3 signalsUp or DownRecurringCryptoBitcoin15MCrypto PricesHide From New

Notable Trades

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

2h ago

$1,000 on Up at 70¢

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

2h ago

$5,245 on Up at 64¢

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

2h ago

$1,348 on Down at 81¢

Related Theses