Part of: Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?
This Polymarket asks whether Bitcoin will be up or down from the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on May 10, 2026 to the noon ET candle close on May 11, 2026. The market resolves on May 11, 2026, with $13,119 in smart money tracked across 5 signals, including profitable BTC and crypto trader activity.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,119.
Categories: Crypto, Crypto Prices, Recurring, Bitcoin, Today 🚀, Up or Down, Daily, Daily-Close
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly active profitable cross-market trader bought Up amid a large volume spike and strong recent price move.
- This bettor is up about $400K lifetime across more than 1,400 resolved bets.
- They have traded 43 related events and 69 markets, showing a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Market volume is spiking 44x above normal while Up has already moved 26.5 points in the last day.
$1,632 on Up | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial crypto trader
Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history bought Up on BTC despite the market now trading below their 80¢ entry.
- This bettor has a long record: 1,455 resolved trades, 60% wins, and about $400K in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 43 events and over $556K in flagged activity.
- They bought Up at 80¢ after a sharp 26.5-point daily move, showing conviction despite the current price slipping to 76¢.
$1,692 on Up | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial BTC trader
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader with strong lifetime profit bought Down into a major BTC volume spike, though the entry is already worse than current market.
- This trader has a long record: 1,455 resolved bets, 60% wins, and about $400K in profit.
- They have traded 41 related events and $531K across 66 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
- Market volume spiked 745x before the event, and this wallet chose Down despite the price already being high.
$1,656 on Down | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
Serial cross-market trader with substantial lifetime profit bought Down before a major volume spike, and the position has already moved from 70% to 74%.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,455 resolved trades, 60% wins, and about $400K in profit.
- They trade across many related markets, with 40 events and $527K flagged in this pattern.
- Bought Down at 70¢ before momentum pushed it to 74¢, suggesting the market is moving with them.
$1,139 on Down | Wallet win rate: 60%
Profitable BTC volume spike
A large $7k Down buy in a daily BTC market came with a major pre-event volume spike and favorable immediate move, from a high-volume wallet with strong lifetime profits despite only modest win rate.
- This wallet is up $328K lifetime across more than 1,400 resolved bets.
- The $7K buy made up over half of the market’s 24h volume and helped confirm a big move toward Down.
- Entry at 70¢ has already moved to 74¢, showing the market followed this trade.
$7,000 on Down | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0x3885...ca77 — Up, $21,172 (54% win rate)
- 0xbc9b...1b9c — Down, $17,822 (85% win rate)
- 0x0fe4...01b7 — Up, $16,710 (60% win rate)
- 0x8c68...072d — Down, $4,800 (89% win rate)
- 0x6e1d...d0fa — Down, $4,747 (58% win rate)
- 0xfdc0...e6a1 — Down, $3,960 (54% win rate)
- 0x02c1...2e70 — Down, $3,700 (37% win rate)
- 0x3379...f0b4 — Down, $3,010 (28% win rate)
- 0xbf5f...c035 — Up, $1,516 (20% win rate)
- 0x1590...adaf — Up, $1,253 (91% win rate)
Related Theses
Bitcoin tops $80,000 by May 10
Covers 1 related market
Bitcoin stays range-bound in May
Covers 4 related markets
