Part of: Claude 4.8 released by...?

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will make a Claude 4.8 model, or a clearly qualifying successor such as 4.9, available to the general public by May 31 ET. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,447 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with a recent sharp wallet alert buying YES. The market is scheduled to resolve by July 31, 2026, based on whether the release criteria were met.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes any Claude 4.8 model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude 4.8 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, or any other variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.7, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation, such as Claude 5 or similar, will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,414.

Categories: AI, anthropic, Tech, Claude

Notable Trades

One-hour-old whale buying YES

A brand-new wallet put nearly $4k into Yes on a market that has surged sharply today, suggesting fresh conviction despite no track record yet.

  • A wallet created about 1 hour earlier bought nearly $4k of Yes at 75¢.
  • The bet is meaningful for this market, equal to about 24% of available liquidity.
  • Price is already up 63 points today, and this trade joined that strong Yes momentum.

$3,966 on Yes

Sharp wallet buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet with a 77% resolved win rate bought Yes at 70¢ on a thin AI-release market that has surged sharply today.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $2.9k lifetime.
  • They put $1.4k on Yes at 70¢, a meaningful size versus $3.9k liquidity.
  • The market is already moving hard, with Yes up 62 percentage points today.

$1,447 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0d7c...6a3a Yes, $26,829
  2. 0xaae9...d661 No, $23,651 (55% win rate)
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e No, $5,670
  4. 0x0298...5cdc Yes, $4,884 (77% win rate)
  5. 0x0482...6b0a No, $2,333 (32% win rate)
  6. 0x1e64...29cc Yes, $2,247 (0% win rate)
  7. 0xc401...8b2c Yes, $2,217
  8. 0xe338...64ad Yes, $1,859
  9. 0x2c1a...5cb0 No, $1,800
  10. 0x4ef3...7bd0 Yes, $1,555

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

64dClaude 4.8 released by...?$5,414 tracked2 signalsAIanthropicTechClaude
Yes
80¢
No
20¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic makes any Claude 4.8 model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude 4.8 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, or any other variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.7, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation, such as Claude 5 or similar, will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

27m ago

$3,966 on Yes at 75¢

75¢80¢5¢

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

2h ago

$1,447 on Yes at 70¢

70¢80¢10¢