Part of: Colts vs. Commanders

Colts vs. Commanders

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 9:30AM ET: If Colts wins, the market will resolve to "Colts". If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

10 smart money signals detected, totaling $469,014.

Categories: Sports, NFL (All), Games

Notable Trades

Five-wallet Colts buying surge

Five wallets bought Colts for $78.6K amid a 70.7x volume spike, though the price has since fallen and the largest bettor has a poor track record.

Five wallets bought Colts in the same direction, totaling $78,642.
Market volume was 70.7 times its historical average, suggesting an unusual burst of interest.
The largest buyer entered at 67¢, but the price is now 54¢; their 54% win rate and $3.9M lifetime losses weaken the case for copying them individually.

$62,657 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 54%

87% winner adds to Commanders position

A highly profitable bettor with an 87% record added a large Commanders position at 48¢, though opposing Colts buying makes the broader cluster less decisive.

A bettor with an 87% record (41 of 47 wins) and $449K in profit bought $18,720 of Commanders at 48¢.
The bettor already held about $57K in Commanders, so this is a sizable addition rather than a first position.
The broader flow is mixed: another detected group bought $68.7K of Colts, tempering the 10-wallet Commanders signal.

$52,977 on Commanders

Three-wallet Colts buying surge

A sharp volume surge and three-wallet Colts buying cluster make this worth watching, though the lead wallet has a deeply negative track record.

Three wallets bought Colts in the same direction, totaling about $91,000.
Trading volume spiked sharply as this wallet added roughly $110,000 to its Colts position.
The lead wallet is down about $3.9 million across 492 resolved bets, so its individual track record is a significant caution.

$110,486 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 54%

Profitable bettors build Colts position

A sizeable Colts position was built by several proven profitable bettors, though a separate Commanders cluster makes the overall market flow contested.

Seven wallets put about $54,600 behind the Colts, with several showing strong long-term profits and winning records.
Most listed Colts trades entered near 50¢; the market is now around 53¢.
The signal is contested: another detection flagged eight wallets buying about $36,700 of Commanders.

$173,898 on Colts

Profitable serial trader backs Colts

A highly profitable bettor with an 82% win rate and extensive cross-market activity bought Colts at 66¢.

This bettor has won 218 of 265 resolved trades and is up $554,631.
They have traded across 196 events and 229 markets, and entered Colts at 66¢.

$1,980 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 85%

Whale buying Colts amid event-wide positioning

A large, event-wide volume spike accompanied this wallet's roughly $15.5K in Colts buys at 50–54¢, though its additional Commanders position makes the overall view mixed.

The wallet put about $15.5K into Colts at 50–54¢; the current price is 66¢.
Trading across nine markets in the same event totaled $81K, alongside a reported 64× volume spike.
The wallet also added Commanders shares, so its overall position is not a purely one-sided Colts bet.

$19,733 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 55%

Profitable sharp scaling into Colts

A highly profitable bettor with a 70% win rate is adding $38,307 to an already substantial Colts position in a low-volume market.

This bettor has won 70% of 672 resolved trades and earned $6.8M in profit.
They added $38,307 to an existing $108,000 Colts position at 64¢.
The trade was more than 23 times the market’s 24-hour volume.

$38,307 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 71%

Serial trader with 82% wins

A highly profitable serial trader with 82% wins across 1,404 resolved bets is backing Commanders at 36¢.

This bettor has won 82% of 1,404 resolved bets and earned nearly $1.93M.
They are backing Commanders at 36¢, despite the market currently pricing them at 36%.
The trader has positioned across 482 events and 690 markets, suggesting an extensive track record beyond this single bet.

$1,349 on Commanders | Wallet win rate: 85%

Proven bettor adds to Colts position

A highly profitable bettor with 352 resolved trades is adding $3,600 to Colts in a quiet market, reinforcing an existing position.

This bettor has won 78% of 352 resolved trades and is up $383,037 overall.
They added $3,600 to an existing $6,000 Colts position while 24-hour market volume was only $251.
The wallet has traded across 174 events, suggesting a broad, sustained betting track record.

$3,600 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable veteran adding to Colts position

A highly experienced, $2.1M-profitable trader added $4,028 to an existing Colts position despite the market's low recent volume.

This trader is up $2.1M across nearly 7,900 resolved bets and has added another $4,028 to an existing Colts position.
The buys totaled over 16 times the market’s $251 in 24-hour volume, though the market has substantial liquidity overall.

$4,028 on Colts | Wallet win rate: 56%