Part of: Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs
This Polymarket market tracks the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 BO3 semifinal between MOUZ and Spirit in the PGL Astana Playoffs. It resolves to MOUZ or Spirit based on the match winner, with a 50-50 resolution if the match is canceled, tied, or delayed more than 7 days without a winner. PolySpotter is tracking $1,760 in smart money and 1 smart money signal for this market ahead of the May 16, 2026 resolution window.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between MOUZ and Spirit in the PGL Astana Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 16 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,253.
Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports
Notable Trades
Profitable serial esports bettor
Surfaced because a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 73% record and $1.19M lifetime profit is buying MOUZ at 33¢.
- This bettor has won 73% of 815 resolved trades and is up $1.19M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 60 events with $142K in similar detected flow.
- Entry at 33¢ implies they see MOUZ as a roughly 3x payout opportunity.
$1,154 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with a very large profitable history bought MOUZ at 33¢, indicating a copyable underdog position despite only a single trade signal.
- This bettor has won 73% of 815 resolved trades and is up about $1.19M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 59 events, suggesting a repeatable sports/event betting process.
- Buying MOUZ at 33¢ is an underdog position with roughly 3x payout if it wins.
$1,760 on MOUZ | Wallet win rate: 73%
Sharp bettor joins MOUZ cluster
Three-wallet one-sided flow on MOUZ includes one sharp bettor with an 88% record converting a Spirit sell into fresh MOUZ exposure.
- One bettor in this cluster wins 88% of resolved bets and is up $9.7K lifetime.
- Three wallets all moved the same way, putting about $4.0K on MOUZ at 33¢.
- The sharp wallet sold Spirit after holding it, effectively flipping exposure toward MOUZ at about 33¢.
$5,594 on MOUZ
Sharp 88% winner
Sharp bettor with an 88% resolved win rate and strong positive P&L bought Spirit at 68%, making the wallet track record the main reason to surface this trade.
- This bettor has won 15 of 17 resolved positions and is up $9,675 lifetime.
- Their average winning entry was 47¢, so this 68¢ Spirit buy comes from a wallet with a strong track record.
- The market is liquid with a tight 1¢ spread, making the 68¢ entry relatively easy to copy.
$1,078 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 88%
Elite esports sharp
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate and $303k profit bought Spirit for $5.7k at 67¢.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $303,697 lifetime.
- They have traded 225 markets across 180 events, suggesting a repeatable sports/esports edge.
- Entry at 67¢ on Spirit implies they still saw value despite the market already pricing Spirit as favored.
$5,667 on Spirit | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0x30c7...ac3b — MOUZ, $20,000 (63% win rate)
- 0xa7df...5eee — MOUZ, $15,000 (48% win rate)
- 0x6902...b4ca — Spirit, $14,925 (93% win rate)
- 0xef26...05ba — MOUZ, $10,666 (73% win rate)
- 0xc65c...ea39 — MOUZ, $10,222 (54% win rate)
- 0x7645...3117 — MOUZ, $10,079 (50% win rate)
- 0x39d3...9ef0 — Spirit, $9,300 (44% win rate)
- 0xf559...f462 — Spirit, $8,458 (89% win rate)
- 0x49ac...2f1e — Spirit, $4,412 (44% win rate)
- 0x48aa...14fe — Spirit, $3,850
