Part of: Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $209,677.

Categories: Esports, counter strike 2, Games, Sports

Notable Trades

96% winner leads Astralis cluster

A large eight-wallet Astralis cluster includes a highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate, alongside a 466x volume spike, although substantial opposing paiN flow adds risk.

  • Eight wallets bought $71,465 of Astralis during a 466x historical volume spike.
  • One participant has won 590 of 613 resolved bets, is up nearly $5.0M, and is buying Astralis at 57%.
  • A sizable opposing paiN cluster makes this a strong but contested signal rather than a one-sided certainty.

$27,674 on Astralis

Five-wallet paiN conviction cluster

Five wallets placed $129,000 of coordinated paiN bets during a 487x volume spike, despite the lead wallet already holding a large position.

  • Five wallets bought paiN for a combined $129,000, creating a strong one-sided signal.
  • Trading volume surged to 487 times its historical average ahead of the match.
  • The lead wallet added roughly $120,000 to an existing $271,000 paiN position, though its 52% win rate is only moderate.

$120,231 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 47%

Five-wallet paiN conviction cluster

A concentrated $129,000 paiN position across five wallets, combined with an extreme pre-event volume spike, is a notable directional signal despite mixed wallet track records and subsequent price decline.

  • Five wallets committed $129,000 to paiN, accounting for roughly half of the market's 24-hour volume.
  • Trading activity was 282 times the historical average, suggesting unusually strong pre-match positioning.
  • The largest bettor is up $962,000 lifetime, while another cluster member wins 69% of resolved bets; paiN has since fallen from 44–45¢ to 38¢.

$8,380 on paiN

97% winner scaling into paiN

A highly profitable serial trader with a 97% win rate is adding $11.7K to an existing paiN position at 41 cents.

  • This bettor has won 97% of 31 resolved positions and is up $1.23M.
  • The wallet is adding $11,700 to an existing $28,500 paiN position at 41¢.
  • The entry is below the 58% market-implied chance for Astralis, signaling strong conviction in paiN despite a liquid market.

$11,700 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 97%

Proven sharp backing paiN

A highly experienced sports-market trader with an 82% win rate and $3.8M profit made a concentrated $21,000 bet on paiN at 42%.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 336 resolved positions and is up $3.8 million lifetime.
  • They placed a concentrated $21,000 bet on paiN at 42%, despite the market pricing paiN as a 42% outcome.
  • The wallet has traded 670 markets across 592 events, providing strong evidence this is an informed sports position rather than a one-off bet.

$21,000 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 84%

Sharp serial bettor backs Astralis

A highly experienced sports-market trader with a 77% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh $7,200 Astralis bet.

  • This bettor wins 77% of 920 resolved trades and is up $2.4 million.
  • Their results imply a strong edge: they typically win despite entering at roughly 55% odds on average.
  • A fresh $7,200 bet backs Astralis at 58% in a liquid esports market.

$7,200 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial trader backs Astralis

A highly experienced serial trader with a 73% win rate and nearly $2M profit made a fresh $2,015 Astralis position at 58%.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 1,601 resolved trades and earned nearly $2.0M in profit.
  • The wallet has traded across 650 events and is taking a fresh $2,015 position on Astralis.
  • Astralis was bought at 58%, with the market currently pricing the outcome near 57%.

$2,015 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 74%

95% esports bettor adds to paiN

A highly profitable esports bettor with a 95% win rate and substantial edge is adding $5,000 to an existing paiN position at 44¢.

  • This bettor has won 146 of 153 resolved trades and is up $506,545.
  • The $5,000 purchase adds to an existing $11,420 paiN position, showing continued conviction.
  • Entry at 44¢ offers roughly 2.3-to-1 upside if paiN wins, versus current 56% Astralis odds.

$5,000 on paiN | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial bettor backs Astralis

A highly profitable serial bettor with a 73% win rate and $1.87M lifetime profit made a concentrated $6.5K Astralis wager in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 73% of 614 resolved trades and is up $1.87M lifetime.
  • The $6,477 wager is over 16 times the market's recent 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in a relatively thin esports market.
  • The trade buys Astralis at 55¢, matching the current market price and offering a copy entry before the match.

$6,477 on Astralis | Wallet win rate: 56%

Top Holders

  1. 0x5291...d4b6 Outcome 87811808, $72,752 (97% win rate)
  2. 0xdb85...152f Outcome 87811808, $50,000 (84% win rate)
  3. 0xe40e...9770 Outcome 87811808, $50,000 (94% win rate)
  4. 0xf377...4159 Outcome 87811808, $29,252 (82% win rate)
  5. 0x934a...a684 Outcome 87811808, $18,264 (88% win rate)
  6. 0xf559...f462 Outcome 87811808, $17,951 (91% win rate)
  7. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 87811808, $13,155 (92% win rate)
  8. 0x6902...b4ca Outcome 87811808, $11,420 (95% win rate)
  9. 0xe2d0...7bbf Outcome 87811808, $8,838 (47% win rate)
  10. 0x5038...6236 Outcome 87811808, $8,713 (49% win rate)

Related Theses

G2 wins in five

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Team Liquid beats Spirit

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Germany wins by six plus

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Germany scores three and routs Paraguay

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Brazil routs Scotland in shootout

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France routs Norway with goals

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Argentina wins big, both score

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Bilibili wins after dropping opener

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Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

ResolvedCounter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs$209,677 tracked9 signalsEsportscounter strike 2GamesSports

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between paiN and Astralis in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 30 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against paiN. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Price History — “Astralis
102¢
74¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$27,674 on Astralis at 58¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$120,231 on paiN at 44¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$8,380 on paiN at 44¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$11,700 on paiN at 41¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$21,000 on paiN at 42¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$7,200 on Astralis at 58¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

8d ago

$2,015 on Astralis at 58¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

9d ago

$5,000 on paiN at 44¢

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

10d ago

$6,477 on Astralis at 55¢

Related Theses

G2 wins in five
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Team Liquid beats Spirit
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Germany wins by six plus
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Spread: Germany (-3.5)Spread: Germany (-5.5)Spread: Germany (-4.5)
Germany scores three and routs Paraguay
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Spread: Germany (-2.5)Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5
Brazil routs Scotland in shootout
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Spread: Brazil (-2.5)Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/…Spread: Brazil (-1.5)
France routs Norway with goals
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Norway vs. France: France O/U …Spread: France (-1.5)Norway vs. France: France O/U …
Argentina wins big, both score
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Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Arge…Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U …Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Arge…
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LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyja…LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyja…LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyja…
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